Sunday Sharp Action Report for 76ers-Celtics, Clippers-Mavericks and Nuggets-Jazz

August 23, 2020 04:07 AM

]NBA favorites continued their winning streak on Saturday, going 2-1-1 ATS. The Heat (-5) edged the Pacers 124-115 and the Bucks (-12.5) snuck by the Magic 121-107. The Lakers beat the Trail Blazers 116-108, which technically was a push with Los Angeles -8 on the closing line. Although many Lakers backers ended up covering as the line was -7.5 for most of the day. Overs went 3-1. 

The Thunder were the only dog to cover. Oklahoma City was the epitome of a sharp play. The Rockets opened as 3-point favorites and two-thirds of bets laid the points with Houston. However, despite this lopsided action, we saw the line drop to Houston -2. This 1-point reverse line move was a dead giveaway that pros grabbed OKC and the points. It wasn't easy, but the Thunder beat the Rockets straight up 119-107 in overtime, cashing + 110 on the moneyline.

Favorites are now 16-6-1 ATS (72.7%) in the playoffs, including 10-1-1 ATS over the past three days. Unders are 13-11 (54.2%). 

Today we have a loaded slate with 4 NBA games, 2 NHL games and 14 MLB games. Let's discuss a trio of matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors.  

For more Sunday analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning on NESN from 10 a.m. ET to 12-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action across MLB, NBA, NHL and more.

1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia 76ers vs Boston Celtics

The Celtics lead this best- of-seven series 3-0. Boston has won and covered all three games: 109-101 as 6.5-point favorites, 128-101 as 4.5-point favorites and most recently 102-94 as 6-point favorites. This Game 4 line opened with the Celtics listed as 8-point favorites, the largest spread of the series thus far. The public is once again backing Boston and fading Philadelphia. However, despite two-thirds of bets laying the points, we've seen this line remain frozen at 8. Normally, the books will adjust the line further toward the popular side to entice betting on the opponent, thereby limiting their risk. Instead, we are seeing a sharp line freeze indicating a reluctance of the books to hand out a better number to brave contrarian 76ers backers. In other words, all liability appears to be on Philadelphia plus the points. Don't be surprised to see this line fall to 7.5. 

3:30 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Clippers vs Dallas Mavericks

The Clippers lead this series 2-1 after posting a 130-122 victory in Game 3. Los Angeles has been favored in all three games: -6.5, -5 and -5. This spread opened up much higher with the Clippers listed as 8.5-point or 9-point favorites depending on the book. Three-out-of-four bets are laying the points with Los Angeles, yet we've seen this line fall to 7.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the underdog Mavs, with pros scooping up Dallas at + 9, + 8.5, + 8 and + 7.5. One big variable here is the health of star Luka Doncic. He is considered a game-time decision with an ankle injury. The total opened at 231.5 and has been bet up to 232.5. The over is 2-1 in this series with point totals of 228, 241 and 252. 

9 p.m. ET: Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz

After dropping the opener to the Nuggets in overtime, the Jazz has won two in a row to take a 2-1 series lead. Utah is coming off a commanding 124-87 win in Game 3 as 1-point favorites. This coincided with Mike Conley's return to the team after the birth of his son. In this pivotal Game 4, the Jazz opened as a 3-point favorite. The public is split and doesn't know which way to go. They like what they've seen out of Utah lately, but also still love the trendy Nuggets, especially now that they're getting points in a "bounce back" spot off of a loss. However, despite tickets being 50/50, we've seen this line move to Utah -3.5. This signals pro money hitting Utah at -3. The total has also taken in some sharp action, rising from 215 to 216 behind some smart over money. The over is 2-1 this series, with point totals of 260, 229 and most recently 211. 

Remember, the sports betting market is fluid and constantly changing due to action coming in. Stay up to date with the latest odds by visiting our free VSiN Live Odds Page for Vegas sportsbooks  and for other legalized states

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