Sunday NFL Wild Card Sharp Report

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The public had a profitable start to Wild Card Weekend as Saturday favorites went a perfect 2-0 ATS. In the early game, the Bengals (-6) edged the Raiders 26-19 and then the Bills (-4.5) destroyed the Patriots 47-17 in primetime. Totals went 1-1. 

The Bengals move from 900 to 550 to win the AFC and 2000 to 1200 to win the Super Bowl. The Bills move from 360 to 210 to win the AFC and 700 to 550 to win the Super Bowl. 
 
With the Raiders and Patriots both eliminated, here are the updated odds to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM. 
 
Packers +  375
Bills, Chiefs 550
Bucs, Titans 750
Rams 1100
Bengals, Cowboys 1200
Cardinals 1800
49ers 2000
Eagles 6600
Steelers 8000

 

Historically, dogs have gone 55% ATS in the playoffs the last decade. After a big chalk Saturday, is today the day dogs start to bark?

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is leaning for today's playoff games...
 
 

1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Eagles (9-8 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) played well down the stretch, going 6-2 over their last eight games to secure a Wild Card berth. The Eagles rested their starters in Week 18, falling to the Cowboys 51-26 and failing to cover as 6.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bucs (13-4 SU, 9-8 ATS) finished the regular season tied with the Packers for the best record in the NFL. Tampa Bay just crushed Carolina 41-17, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Currently 57% of bets are laying the points with Tampa Bay at BetMGM, making the Bucs the public side. For much of the week, the line remained frozen at 8.5. But over the past 24-hours, we've seen respected money side with the Eagles, dropping the line from 8.5 to 7.5. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-9 ATS (76%) over the past decade. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (58% ATS). We've also seen sharps target this under, dropping the total from 49.5 to 46. The weather is a big reason for the under steam. The forecast calls for 20 MPH winds and possibly some rain. These teams met back on October 14 and the Bucs won 28-22. 

 

4:30 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

The 49ers (10-7 SU, 9-8 ATS) went 7-2 down the stretch to earn the 6-seed. San Francisco just upset the Rams 27-24, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Cowboys (12-5 SU, 13-4 ATS) went 5-1 in their last six to win the AFC East and earn the 3-seed. Dallas crushed Philadelphia 51-26 in the finale, easily covering as 6.5-point road dogs. 

This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is right down the middle and doesn't know who to take, with 51% of bets leaning laying the points with Dallas. Early in the week, it looked like this line may fall to 2.5. But over the past 48-hours we've seen the juice move back toward Dallas (-3 at -115). Sharps may be waiting for a hook to pop on the 49ers (3.5). Kyle Shanahan is 25-18 ATS (58%) as a dog in his career. Playoff dogs against teams who missed the postseason the previous year are 20-10 ATS (67%) over the past decade. We've also seen some movement to the over (50 to 51). The over is getting 71% of bets and 91% of money at BetMGM.

8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs

The Steelers (9-7-1 SU, 8-9 ATS) needed a Week 18 miracle to sneak into the playoffs as the 7-seed. Pittsburgh just upset Baltimore 16-13, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Chiefs (12-5 SU, 8-9 ATS) are the 2-seed and won the AFC West. Kansas City just edged the Broncos 28-24, failing to cover as 11.5-point road favorites. 

This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 13-point home favorite. The line has fallen from 13 to 12.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the points. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-9 ATS (76%) over the past decade. Mike Tomlin is 7-4 ATS this season as a dog and 47-25 ATS (65%) as a dog in his career. Sharps have also hit this under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 46. If the total drops at least a point, the under is 24-18 (57%) over the past decade. The forecast calls for mid 30s with 10 MPH winds at Arrowhead. These teams met three weeks ago and the Chiefs won 36-10.

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