Through eight weeks of NFL action, underdogs and unders continue to be a smart bet. Dogs are 71-52 ATS (58%) this season with "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more a blistering 48-26 ATS (65%). Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 52-35 ATS (60%) and dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 29-18 ATS (62%). Meanwhile, unders are 72-52 (58%). Unders that fall at least a half point are 39-24 (62%). Divisional unders are 28-12 (70%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more are 21-8 (72%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine where smart money is leaning for today's Week 9 action...
1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings (-3, 43.5) at Washington Commanders
The Vikings (6-1) have won five straight games and just took down the Cardinals 34-26, covering as 4-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Commanders (4-5) have won three straight and just edged the Colts 17-16, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the Vikings (70% of bets), largely due to their impressive won-loss record. However, every time this line jumps up to Vikings -3.5 we see sharp buyback on the Commanders plus the hook (+3.5), bringing the line back down to 3. This indicates a sharp line freeze on Washington. The Commanders are only receiving 23% of bets but 52% of money, a sharp bet discrepancy in their favor. Taylor Heinicke is 8-2 ATS over his last ten starts.
1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-5, 40.5)
The Colts (3-4-1) have lost two straight and just fell to the Commanders 17-16, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Patriots (4-4) have won three of their last four games and just beat the Jets 22-17, covering as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Patriots listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with New England, yet we've seen this line fall from Patriots -6.5 to -5. This signals respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Colts. Sweet spot dogs +3.5 or more are 48-26 ATS (65%) this season. Dogs who didn't cover the previous week, like the Colts here, are 29-18 ATS (62%).
4:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-2, 49)
The Seahawks (5-3) have won three straight games and just beat the Giants 27-13, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (3-5) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Vikings 34-26, failing to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from Cardinals -3.5 to -2, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the road dog Seahawks. Divisional dogs like Seattle are 23-17 ATS (58%) this season. Pete Carroll is 45-28 ATS (62%) as a dog. Kyler Murray is just 9-14 ATS (39%) as a favorite.