Sunday NFL Week 9 Sharp Report

jimmyg

 

Today the weekend wraps up with Week 9 of the NFL regular season. Up until this point, underdogs have been a smart bet. Dogs are 68-54 ATS (56%) this season. Home field advantage isn't what it used to be as road dogs have gone an impressive 43-29 ATS (60%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 42-22 ATS (65.6%) while primetime dogs are a sparkling 17-8 ATS (68%). Unders are 67-55 (55%) while non-conference unders are 23-13 (64%).

We've also seen windy unders turn a profit. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 23-14 (62%). Here are today's windy under system matches

Bills-Jags Under 48.5

Texans-Dolphins Under 46.5

Patriots Panthers Under 41.5

Packers-Chiefs Under 48

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 9 matchups today...

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles

These non-conference foes are coming off polar opposite Week 8 performances. The Chargers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) have dropped two straight and just fell to the Patriots 27-24, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Eagles (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) just crushed the Lions 44-6, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is laying the short number with Justin Herbert, yet we've seen the Chargers fall from -3 to -1.5. This signals an overload of respected money grabbing the points with the Eagles at home. Short dogs  6 or less with a line move in their favor are 58-37 ATS (61.1%) over the last two seasons. Jerome Boger, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (55.2% ATS). The Eagles are also in a prime teaser spot ( 1.5 to  7.5), which passes through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7.

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers

This NFC West grudge match is one of the most lopsided games of the week. The Cardinals (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to the Packers 24-21 and losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS) finally got back in the win column with a 33-22 victory over the Bears, covering as 4.5-point road favorites. The win snapped a 4-game losing skid for San Francisco. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the high-flying Cardinals. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen the line completely flip from 49ers  3 to -3. This signals big money backing the 49ers at home. San Francisco has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (2-5) against a "good" ATS team (6-2). One reason for the big line move: Kyler Murray is questionable with an ankle injury.  

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Kansas City Chiefs

This non-conference showdown is one of the most heavily bet games of the week. The Packers (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) have won seven straight games and just upset the Cardinals 24-21, winning outright as 6.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chiefs (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS) have rotated wins and losses their last six games. Kansas City just beat the Giants 20-17 to get back to .500, although the Chiefs failed to cover as 10.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point home favorite. Early Packers money dropped Green Bay from 3 all the way down to a pick'em. But then once it was announced QB Aaron Rodgers would miss the game due to COVID, we saw the line shoot up to Chiefs -7.5. The public is happy to bet against Jordan Love, yet we saw some sharp buyback on Green Bay 7.5, dropping the line back down to 7. Green Bay has value as a buy-low inflated dog. The Packers also enjoy a massive rest vs tired advantage. The Packers last played on Thursday night while the Chiefs are on a short week having just played on Monday night. Green Bay will welcome back star WR Davante Adams from the COVID list. Kansas City is just 9-15 ATS (37.5%) since winning the Super Bowl two years ago.

 

8:20 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Rams

This Sunday Night showdown features a pair of non-conference foes riding-four-game win streaks. The Titans (6-2 SU, 6-2 ATS) just upset the Colts 34-31, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams just dismissed the Texans 38-22, although Los Angeles failed to cover as 16.5-point road favorites. The lookahead line on this game was roughly Rams -4.5 at home. But with the news of Titans star RB Derrick Henry likely out for the year with a foot injury, we saw this line re-open at Rams -6.5 and quickly get steamed up to -7.5. Some sharp buyback hit the Packers 7.5, dropping the line back down to 7 at most shops. Similar to the Packers, the Titans have value as a buy-low inflated dog in a heavily bet game. Primetime dogs are 17-8 ATS (68%) this season. Road dogs are 43-29 ATS (60%). 

 

More Sunday Moves

Texans  7 to  5.5 at Dolphins

Cowboys -8.5 to -10 vs Broncos

Patriots -2.5 to -3.5 at Panthers

Browns  3 to  2.5 at Bengals

 

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