Sunday NFL Week 8 Sharp Report

October 29, 2022 09:39 PM
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Through seven weeks of NFL action, underdogs and unders have turned a consistent profit. Dogs are 63-45 ATS (58%), while dogs who failed to cover the previous week are 24-16 ATS (60%), dogs who missed the playoffs last season are 46-30 ATS (61%) and dogs +3.5 or more are 44-22 ATS (67%). Meanwhile, unders are 64-45 (59%). Divisional unders are 25-10 (71%) and windy unders 10 MPH or more are 19-8 (70%). 

With these trends in mind, let's examine a trio of Week 8 games receiving sharp action today...

 

1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-4, 41)

The Panthers (2-5) just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 21-3 win over the Bucs, winning outright as 13-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Falcons (3-4) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Bengals 35-17, failing to cover as 6.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is laying the points with the Falcons, who have the better record, are at home and are 6-1 ATS. However, despite receiving 61% of bets, the Falcons have fallen from -6.5 to -4. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Carolina, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Carolina has value as a divisional dog (20-15 ATS, 57%) this season, a "sweet spot" dog +3.5 or more (67% ATS) and a dog who missed the playoffs the previous season (61% ATS). Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 59% ATS to the road team historically, .

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Indianapolis Colts (-3, 39.5) 

The Commanders (3-4) have won two straight games and just beat the Packers 23-21, winning outright as 4-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Colts (3-3-1) just saw their two game win streak come to an end, losing to the Titans 19-10 and failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Indianapolis listed as high as a 6-point home favorite. We've seen this line plummet all the way down from 6 to 4, signaling respected money grabbing the points with road dog Washington. Part of this move is also due to the fact that the Colts are benching starting QB Matt Ryan in favor of backup Sam Ehlinger. Dogs with severe line movement of 2-points or more in their favor are 9-4 ATS (69%) this season and 47-31 ATS (60%) since 2019. The Commanders also have correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (39.5). The fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover the number. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-1, 42) at Los Angeles Rams 

The 49ers (3-4) have lost two straight games and just got crushed by the Chiefs 44-23, failing to cover as 1-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Rams (3-3) are coming off a bye and just beat the Panthers 24-10 their last time out, covering as 10-point home favorites. The lookahead line on this game was Rams -2.5 at home. We quickly saw this number flip to 49ers -2.5 on the road early in the week. But ever since that time, all respected money has jumped on the Rams, dropping the line back down from 49ers -2.5 to -1. Essentially all late money is going to Los Angeles, moving the line closer to a pick'em. This move coincided with the 49ers ruling out WR Deebo Samuel with an injury. The Rams have value as a contrarian home divisional dog only receiving 26% of bets. Los Angeles also enjoys a rest advantage, coming off a bye while the 49ers played on Sunday. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 56% ATS to the home team historically. 

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