Sunday NFL Week 8 Sharp Report

colts

 

Today the weekend wraps up with Week 8 of the NFL regular season. Up until this point, it's been a good year for underdogs and unders. Dogs have gone 59-49 ATS (55%). Conference dogs are 45-30 ATS (60%). Short road dogs 6 or less are 26-11 ATS (70%). Unders are 60-47 (56%). Non-conference unders are 20-12 (63%).

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 8 matchups today...

1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts

The Titans (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three straight, including a pair of impressive wins over the Chiefs 27-3 and the Bills 34-31. Tennessee won outright as a 4-point and 6-point home dog, respectively. Meanwhile, the Colts (3-4 SU, 5-2 ATS) have won three of their last four games and just beat the 49ers 30-18, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. The early lookahead line on this game was Colts -2.5 at home. The public is all over the Titans after their pair of impressive wins and can't believe Tennessee is getting points. This overload of money flipped the Titans to -1.5 early in the week. But ever since, respected money has hammered Indianapolis, steaming the Colts back to a 25-point home favorite. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the contrarian favorite Colts. We could also see a higher scoring game in this one. The total opened at 47.5 and has risen to 51. Both teams are 4-3 to the over this season. 

4:05 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Los Angeles Chargers

The Patriots (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) are 2-1 over their last three games and just crushed the Jets 54-13, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Chargers (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) are coming off a bye and just got demolished by the Ravens 34-6, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Justin Herbert and company off a bye. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 6 to 4.5. This indicates some respected money on Belichick and the Pats plus the points. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 41-32 ATS (56%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 36-20 ATS (64%). Short road dogs 6 or less are 26-11 ATS (70%). Ron Torbert, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (58% ATS). 

8:20 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys (5-1 SU, 6-0 ATS) are the only NFL team to cover every game this season. In their last game, Dallas outlasted New England 35-29 in overtime, covering as 3.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (3-3 SU, 3-3 ATS) started 0-2 but have since gone 3-1, most recently beating the Panthers 34-28 in overtime, covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. The public thought the line was way too good to be true and hammered red-hot Dallas laying a short number. This lopsided betting pushed the Cowboys up to -2.5. But then news broke about Dak Prescott's calf strain. With his status up in the air, we've seen an overload of big money pound the Vikings, flipping Minnesota to a 3-point home favorite. We've also seen some under money hit the market, dropping the total from 53 to 51.5. Unders that stay the same or falla re 34-27 (56%) this season. 

 

More Week 8 Moves

Dolphins-Bills Under 49.5 to 48.5

Bengals -8.5 to -11 at Jets

Browns -3 to -4 vs Steelers

Jaguars-Seahawks Over 43 to 44.5

Washington-Broncos Over 44 to 45

Bucs-Saints Under 50.5 to 48.5

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