Sunday NFL Week 7 Sharp Report

falcons

 

Today the weekend wraps up with Week 7 of the NFL regular season. Favorites posted their best Sunday of the season last week, going 9-3 straight up and 8-4 ATS. It was the worst Sunday of the year for most sportsbooks, with popular chalk favorites coming through for the public. However, dogs still hold the edge overall this season with a 51-44 ATS (54%) record. One big distinction between the performance of dogs and favorites is conference vs non-conference play. Non-conference favorites are 17-12 ATS (59%). On the flip side, conference dogs are 39-27 ATS (59%). This speaks to the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team while familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. 

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 7 matchups today...

1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins

The Falcons (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just beat the Jets 27-20 in London, covering as 3-point favorites. On the flipside, the Dolphins (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) have lost four straight and just fell to the Jags 23-20 in London, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. This line opened with Miami listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Atlanta, steaming the Falcons from 2.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp "Dog to Favorite" line movement for the Falcons. Non-conference favorites are 17-12 ATS (59%) this season. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-27 ATS (59%). This is a big rest advantage for Atlanta, who was idle last week. Favorites off a bye are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade, with road favorites roughly 66% ATS. Both teams are giving up roughly 30 points per game defensively. The difference comes on offense, where the Falcons are averaging 21 PPG on offense and the Dolphins just 16.5 PPG.

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders

The Eagles (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) have lost four of their last five games, although they did manage to cover the 7 last week in a 28-22 loss at home to the Bucs. Meanwhile, the Raiders (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) let go of Jon Gruden and then rolled the Broncos 34-24 last week, winning outright as 5-point road dogs. This line opened with Las Vegas listed as a 3-point home favorite. With typically 3-points awarded for home field advantage, the oddsmakers are pretty much saying these teams are even and it would be a coin-flip on a neutral field. The line hasn't budged off the key number of 3, although some books are juicing up the Eagles 3 to -115. Short road dogs 3 or less are 12-4 ATS (75%) this season. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 39-27 ATS (59%). Philadelphia also has a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Raiders played Sunday on the road. Points could be on display in this one. The total has been bet up from 47.5 to 48.5, signaling some respected over money.

8:20 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers

The Colts (2-4 SU, 4-2 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just demolished Houston 31-3, easily covering as 11.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the 49ers (2-3 SU, 1-4 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Cardinals 17-10 last week and failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have taken the points with road dog Indianapolis, dropping the line from 5 to 4. Some shops have even reached 3.5 throughout the week. Essentially, all liability appears to be on Indianapolis. The Colts also match several profitable betting systems this season. Short road dogs 6 or less are 25-9 ATS (74%) this season. Primetime dogs are 12-6 ATS (63%). Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (60% ATS). We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 44.5 to 43. Weather could play a factor, with forecasts calling for 15-20 MPH wins at Levi's Stadium.

 

More Sunday Moves

Bengals/Ravens Under 47.5 to 46

Panthers-Giants Under 44 to 42.5

Washington 10 to 8 at Packers

Chiefs-Titans Over 56.5 to 57.5

Bears 12.5 to 11.5 at Bucs

Cardinals -17 to -18 vs Texans

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