Entering Week 6 of the NFL season, the two most profitable betting angles have been underdogs and unders. Dogs are 48-32 ATS (60%). Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 34-20 ATS (63%). Dogs who didn't cover the previous week are 17-9 ATS (65%). Meanwhile, unders are 48-33 (59%). Divisional unders are 20-8 (71%). Unders that fall at least a half point are 29-17 (63%). Windy unders 10 MPH or more are 14-7 (67%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine a trio of NFL games receiving sharp action today...
1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (-4.5, 45) at Atlanta Falcons
The 49ers (3-2) are riding a two-game win streak and just crushed the Panthers 37-15, easily covering as 6-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Falcons (2-3) just saw their two game win streak come to an end last week, falling to the Bucs 21-15 but covering as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with the 49ers listed as a 6.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with San Francisco under a touchdown. However, despite 73% of bets backing the 49ers, we've seen San Francisco fall from -6.5 to -4.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Falcons, with pros grabbing the points with the home dog. Dogs that see a "severe" line move of 2-points or more are 6-2 ATS (75%) this season and 44-29 ATS (60%) since 2019. Conference dogs 6 or less are 24-20 ATS (55%) this season. The Falcons are 5-0 ATS on the season.
1 p.m. ET: New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (-2.5, 43)
The Patriots (2-3) are coming off their best game of the season, crushing the Lions 29-0 and easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (2-3) have lost two straight and just fell to the Chargers 30-28, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Browns listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen the Patriots move from +3.5 to +2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are split. So we know this line move was caused by wiseguys grabbing the points with New England. Road dogs are 28-18 ATS (61%) this season. Short road dogs +3 or less are 79-60 ATS (57%) since 2019. Sharps have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 41.5 to 43.5. The over is receiving 51% of bets but 67% of money, a sharp over bet discrepancy. Cleveland is 4-1 to the over this season.
4:05 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 50.5) at Seattle Seahawks
The Cardinals (2-3) just fell to the Eagles 20-17 but covered as 5.5-point home dogs. On the other hand, the Seahawks (2-3) just lost to the Saints 39-32, failing to cover as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Cardinals listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Currently 60% of bets are laying the points with Arizona. This lopsided betting briefly drove the line up Arizona -3. Once the key number of 3 was available, sharp money hammered Seattle +3, causing the line to drop back to 2.5. Essentially we are seeing a sharp line freeze and reverse line movement on the home dog Seahawks. Divisional dogs are 16-12 ATS (57%) this season. Seattle also has value as a dog who didn't cover last week (17-9 ATS, 65%) and a dog who missed the playoffs last season (34-20 ATS, 63%).
More Sunday Line Moves
Eagles -5 to -6.5 vs Cowboys
Jets +9.5 to +7.5 at Packers
Bucs -8 to -9.5 at Steelers
Bengals -1 to -2.5 at Saints
Ravens-Giants over 43 to 45.5