Sunday NFL Week 6 Sharp Report

vikes

 

Today the weekend wraps up with Week 6 of the NFL regular season. Up until this point, underdogs and unders have been a smart bet. Dogs are 46-35 ATS (57 percent), with short road dogs 6 or less a blistering 22-8 ATS (73 percent). Dogs off a loss are 23-16 ATS (59 percent). Meanwhile, unders are 44-37 (54 percent). If the total is 45 or less, the under is 15-8 (65 percent). 

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 6 matchups today...

 

1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers

These non-division NFC opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Vikings (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) started 0-2 but have since won two of their last three games, including a 19-17 come-from-behind win over the Lions last week, although Minnesota failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) started 3-0 but have since lost two straight, most recently falling to the Eagles 21-18 as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this speaks volumes. Typically teams are awarded roughly 3-point for home field advantage. So this opener says the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field. The public is all over Carolina, who has a better record and is laying a short number at home. However, pros have gotten down hard on Minnesota, flipping the Vikings from a 1 dog to -2.5 favorite. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their directions are 34-24 ATS (59 percent) this season. Craig Wrolstad, the lead referee, has historically favored road teams (64-44 ATS, 59 percent). 

 

1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens

This heavyweight showdown between divisional leaders could be a possible playoff preview. The Chargers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Browns 47-42 last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won four straight, including a big 31-25 come-from-behind win over the Colts last week, although Baltimore failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on the red-hot Chargers getting points, dropping Los Angeles down from 3.5 to + 2.5. Road dogs are 30-19 ATS (61%) this season. Short road dogs 6 or less are 22-8 ATS (73%). Los Angeles also enjoys a rest advantage as the Ravens are on a short week having played on Monday night. Justin Herbert is 6-3 ATS (67%) as a dog in his young career. The Chargers are in a prime teaser spot, as going from 2.5 to 8.5 goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots

This non-conference grudge match is the most heavily bet game of the late afternoon window. The Cowboys (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) are riding high, having won four straight games after losing the season opener to the Bucs. Dallas just waxed the Giants 44-20, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 25-22 win over the Texans, although New England failed to cover as 8-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as roughly a 2-point road favorite. The public is hammering Dallas, who is the only team to cover every number this season. This lopsided support pushed the Cowboys up to -4.5. That's when a flood of sharp Patriots buyback hit the market, dropping New England down to 3.5 or even 3 at some shops. The Patriots are one of your top contrarian plays of the day. The lead referee, Brad Allen, has historically favored home teams (59-49 ATS, 55%). 

 

More Sunday Moves

Dolphins-Jags Over 44.5 to 47

Packers -4.5 to -6 at Bears

Packers-Bears Under 46 to 44

Broncos -3 to -4 vs Raiders

Steelers -3.5 to -5 vs Seahawks

Cardinals-Browns Under 54 to 48.5

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All
  • Lauri_Markanen

    Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Contest Corner, Wednesday play (12/1)

    As we were getting ready for the Tuesday night sports betting action to begin with the NBA, NHL and college basketball, all I could think of is that I...
  • baylor

    Early CFB Conference Championship Sharp Report

    Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 9 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 70 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown...
  • reynolds

    Hero World Challenge best bets

    While the official PGA Tour season is on pause until January, an elite field of 20 players gathers this week for the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas....
  • finocchiaro

    Best bets for Font-Aldo UFC card

    After a week off for Thanksgiving, the UFC heads into its last three productions of 2021 starting with Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex...
  • USATSI_17242641

    Peterson: Best bet for Nebraska vs. NC State

    The Big Ten/ACC Challenge will be decided on Wednesday and NC State will look to both help its profile, and also that of the ACC, as the Wolfpack...
  • vontobelnfl

    NFL Week 12 lessons learned

    It was an emotional week for me in the NFL, as the Indianapolis Colts’ failed cover cost me a share of the first-place prize in the Westgate SuperContest...
  • vontobelnba

    Three NBA trends to watch

    It was a somewhat quiet week in the NBA with the league taking a night off for Thanksgiving, but there is still plenty to discuss. This week we touch...
  • macneil

    Hockey bettors must beat closing line

    In the end, wins and losses are really all that matters, because every sports bettor’s goal is to make money. However, wins and losses don’t...
  • appelbaum

    Five NFL games wise guys like

    NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 12, going 8-7 ATS. Dogs are now 101-77 ATS (57 percent) on the season. A $100 bettor taking every...
  • hill

    NFL capsules for Week 13

    Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints The Dallas Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) visit the New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU and ATS) on Thursday night as both...
  • moore

    Let's re-examine Gonzaga wagers

    Those predictions we heard about this college basketball season being filled with upsets and uncertainty? Well, they seem to be pretty accurate just a...
  • makinennfl

    Simulating rest of NFL season

    (To view the charts associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) All NFL teams have either five or six games left in their 2021-22...

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close