Today the weekend wraps up with Week 6 of the NFL regular season. Up until this point, underdogs and unders have been a smart bet. Dogs are 46-35 ATS (57 percent), with short road dogs + 6 or less a blistering 22-8 ATS (73 percent). Dogs off a loss are 23-16 ATS (59 percent). Meanwhile, unders are 44-37 (54 percent). If the total is 45 or less, the under is 15-8 (65 percent).
For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.
In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 6 matchups today...
1 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers
These non-division NFC opponents are trending in opposite directions. The Vikings (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) started 0-2 but have since won two of their last three games, including a 19-17 come-from-behind win over the Lions last week, although Minnesota failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Panthers (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) started 3-0 but have since lost two straight, most recently falling to the Eagles 21-18 as 2.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 1-point home favorite. Right off the bat, this speaks volumes. Typically teams are awarded roughly 3-point for home field advantage. So this opener says the Vikings would be favored on a neutral field. The public is all over Carolina, who has a better record and is laying a short number at home. However, pros have gotten down hard on Minnesota, flipping the Vikings from a + 1 dog to -2.5 favorite. Road teams that see the line stay the same or move in their directions are 34-24 ATS (59 percent) this season. Craig Wrolstad, the lead referee, has historically favored road teams (64-44 ATS, 59 percent).
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens
This heavyweight showdown between divisional leaders could be a possible playoff preview. The Chargers (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) have won three straight and just edged the Browns 47-42 last week, covering as 2.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Ravens (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS) have won four straight, including a big 31-25 come-from-behind win over the Colts last week, although Baltimore failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on the red-hot Chargers getting points, dropping Los Angeles down from + 3.5 to + 2.5. Road dogs are 30-19 ATS (61%) this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 22-8 ATS (73%). Los Angeles also enjoys a rest advantage as the Ravens are on a short week having played on Monday night. Justin Herbert is 6-3 ATS (67%) as a dog in his young career. The Chargers are in a prime teaser spot, as going from + 2.5 to + 8.5 goes through the key numbers of 3 and 7.
4:25 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots
This non-conference grudge match is the most heavily bet game of the late afternoon window. The Cowboys (4-1 SU, 5-0 ATS) are riding high, having won four straight games after losing the season opener to the Bucs. Dallas just waxed the Giants 44-20, easily covering as 7-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) just snapped a two-game losing skid with a 25-22 win over the Texans, although New England failed to cover as 8-point road favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as roughly a 2-point road favorite. The public is hammering Dallas, who is the only team to cover every number this season. This lopsided support pushed the Cowboys up to -4.5. That's when a flood of sharp Patriots buyback hit the market, dropping New England down to + 3.5 or even + 3 at some shops. The Patriots are one of your top contrarian plays of the day. The lead referee, Brad Allen, has historically favored home teams (59-49 ATS, 55%).
More Sunday Moves
Dolphins-Jags Over 44.5 to 47
Packers -4.5 to -6 at Bears
Packers-Bears Under 46 to 44
Broncos -3 to -4 vs Raiders
Steelers -3.5 to -5 vs Seahawks
Cardinals-Browns Under 54 to 48.5