Entering today's Week 5 slate, NFL underdogs and unders have dominated the regular season. Dogs are 39-25 ATS (61%). Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 29-15 ATS (67%) and dogs that didn't cover the previous week are 15-4 ATS (79%). Unders are 39-26 (60%). Divisional unders are 17-5 (77%).
With these trends in mind, let's discuss a trio of NFL Week 5 games receiving sharp action today...
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
These AFC opponents are coming off opposite performances in Week 4. The Chargers took care of business against the Texans, winning 34-24 and covering as 5.5-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Browns fell to the Falcons 23-20, losing outright as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with Justin Herbert. However, despite receiving 73% of bets, the Chargers have fallen from -3 to -1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Browns, with pros grabbing the points with the home team. Cleveland is only getting 27% of bets but 48% of money, a sharp money discrepancy in their favor. The Browns also have value as a dog who didn't cover last week (79% ATS this season) and a dog who missed the playoffs (67% ATS). The Chargers would be a situational fade play as a West Coast team going East for an early 1 p.m. game. The total has also fallen from 48 to 47, signaling some sharp under support. The forecast calls for mid 60s with 15 MPH winds.
1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Washington Commanders (1-3)
This non-conference matchup is arguably the fishiest line of the week. The Titans are riding a two-game win streak and just beat the Colts 24-17, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Commanders have lost three-straight games and just fell to the Cowboys 25-10, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point road favorite. Currently 84% of bets are laying the points with the Titans, making Tennessee the top public play of the day. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Tennessee fall from -3 to -1. Some shops are even down to a pick'em. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to hand out a better number to the public who is already hammering the Titans to begin with? If it looks too good to be true, it usually is. This sharp line move signals respected money backing Washington at home. The Commanders have buy-low value as a team who didn't cover last week against a sell-high team that did cover.
8:20 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals (2-2) at Baltimore Ravens (2-2)
This Sunday Night Football matchup features a pair of AFC North rivals trending in opposite directions. After starting out 0-2, the Bengals have now won two straight. Cincinnati just beat Miami 27-15, covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, Baltimore has lost two of its last three games and just fell to Buffalo 23-20, pushing as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with the Ravens listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Currently 55% of bets laying the points with Baltimore, yet we've seen the Ravens fall from -3.5 to -3 at several shops. This signals some smart money leaning Cincinnati plus the hook (+3.5). The Bengals have value as a divisional dog. Primetime dogs are 57% ATS since 2019. Joe Burrow is 13-7 ATS in his career as a dog. Cincinnati also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Ravens played on Sunday. The total has dipped from 48.5 to 47.5. Primetime unders are 10-4 this season and 60% since 2019.