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Sunday NFL Week 5 Sharp Report



Today the weekend wraps up with Week 5 of the NFL regular season. Up until this point, underdogs and unders have been a smart bet. Dogs are 38-27 ATS (59 percent), with short road dogs 6 or less a blistering 19-6 ATS (76 percent). Meanwhile, unders are 38-27 (59 percent). If the total is 45 or less, the under is 15-5 (75 percent).

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

 In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 5 matchups today...


9:30 a.m. ET: New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons
Don't sleep in too late Sunday morning or you'll miss this 9:30 AM ET kick in London. The Jets (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) just won their first game of the year last week, upsetting the Titans 27-24 as 5.5-point home dogs. On the flip side, the Falcons (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) just fell to Washington 34-30 at home, failing to cover as 2-point home dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3.5-point neutral site favorite. Respected money has jumped on the Jets getting points, dropping this line down to 2.5. Short dogs  6 or less with a line move in their favor are 10-6 ATS this season and 53-33 ATS (62 percent) over the past two seasons. The Falcons will miss a pair of wide receivers with injuries today, including Calvin Ridley and Russell Gage. 
1 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
Both of these NFC non-division opponents are looking to bounce back from tough losses. The Eagles (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) have dropped three straight, including a 42-30 loss to the Chiefs last week in which they failed to cover as 7-point home dogs. Similarly, the Panthers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the year in Week 4, falling to the Cowboys 26-28 and failing to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 4-point home favorite. The public wants nothing to do with the Eagles and is happy to lay the points with the Panthers, who are at home laying a short number and have a far better won-loss record. However, pro money appears to be buying low on Philadelphia as we've seen the Eagles move from  4 to  3 despite being the unpopular play. The Eagles have buy-low value as a team on a losing skid. Road dogs are 25-15 ATS (62 percent) this season. Philadelphia also has value as a dog with a low total (45). Historically, low totals benefit dogs as the fewer amount of expected points scored makes it harder for the favorite to cover. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 29-20 ATS (59 percent) to road teams historically. 
1 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals
This non-conference matchup features a pair of division leaders. The Packers (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) lead the NFC North and are riding a 3-game winning streak, including a 27-17 win over the Steelers last week in which they covered as 6-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bengals (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) lead the AFC North and have won two straight, beating the Jaguars 24-21 last week but failing to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for Aaron Rodgers in company laying a short spread. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 3.5 to 3. Some books are even down to 2.5. This signals some wiseguy reverse line movement on the Bengals plus the points at home. The Bengals are your top contrarian play of the week as they are only receiving about one-quarter of bets across the market. The Bengals also have a rest and game-plan advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Packers played Sunday. 
4:25 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys
This NFC East grudge match pits the division leader against the cellar dweller. The Giants (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) just posted their first win of the season last week, upsetting the Saints 27-21 and winning outright as 7-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Cowboys (3-1 SU, 4-0 ATS) have ripped off three-straight wins and just took down the Panthers 36-28, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 7.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Cowboys, who are the only NFL team to cover every game this season. However, this line hasn't ticked up to Dallas. Instead, it's fallen from 7.5 to 7. This indicates some respected money grabbing the Giants, ideally with the hook (7.5). New York has value as a divisional dog (56 percent ATS last two seasons) and a dog with a line move in their favor (58 percent ATS last two seasons). We've also seen some over money show up, driving the total from 49.5 to 52.5.
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