Through three weeks of NFL betting, we've seen dogs and unders produce consistent winning results. Entering Week 4, dogs are 29-19-1 ATS (60%). Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 23-9 ATS (72%). Dogs that see the line stay the same or move in their favor are 12-6 ATS (67%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 31-18 (63%). Divisional unders are 14-4 (78%).
With these trends in mind, let's examine a trio of NFL games receiving sharp action today...
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers (1-2) at Houston Texans (0-2-1)
The Chargers have lost two straight and just got blown out by the Jaguars 38-10, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Texans just fell to the Bears 23-20, pushing as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point road favorite. We've seen this line fall from 7 to 6, signaling respected money grabbing the points with the home dog Texans. Houston is only receiving 33% bets but 45% money, a sharp contrarian bet discrepancy in their favor. Conference dogs +6 or less are 222-147 (60%) since 2019. The Chargers will be missing several key player in this one, including OT Rashawn Slater, DE Joey Bosa and WR Keenan Allen. Alex Kemp, the lead ref, is 56% ATS to the home team historically. Both teams are averaging roughly 18 PPG on offense. The difference comes on defense, where the Chargers are allowing 28 PPG compared to just 16 PPG for Houston. The Texans are 2-0-1 ATS on the season.
1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Baltimore Ravens (2-1)
The Bills are coming off their first loss of the season, falling to the Dolphins 21-19 and losing straight up as 4-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Ravens just brushed aside the Patriots 37-26, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public loves Buffalo in a bounce-back spot after a loss and 60% of bets are laying the short spread with the Bills. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 3.5 to 3. This indicates smart money buying low on Baltimore plus the points at home. Lamar Jackson is 8-1 ATS in his career as a dog. John Harbaugh is 40-29 ATS (58%) as a dog. Pros have also hammered this under, dropping the total from 54 to 51. The forecast calls for rain and 15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 or more MPH, the under is roughly 55% over the past decade.
8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (2-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
Both of these Super Bowl contenders are looking to rebound from tough losses. The Chiefs just fell to the Colts 20-17, losing outright as 4.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs just lost to the Packers 14-12, losing outright as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is hammering Patrick Mahomes and Kansas City. However, despite the Chiefs receiving 76% of bets, we've seen this line fall all the way down to a pick'em. Some shops have even flipped to Bucs -1 at home. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Bucs, with pros siding with Tom Brady and Tampa Bay at home. The Bucs are one of the top contrarian plays of the weekend, receiving only 24% of bets in a primetime game. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game here. The total has fallen from 48.5 to 45.5, indicating heavy wiseguy money to the under. Primetime unders are 8-3 this season. The Bucs are 3-0 to the under. The Chiefs are 2-1 to the under. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 59% historically to the under.
More Week 4 Moves
Falcons 3 to 1.5 vs Browns
Seahawks 6 to 3.5 at Lions
Raiders -1.5 to -2.5 vs Broncos
Vikings -2 to -3 vs Saints (London)
Patriots-Packers under 42.5 to 40
Jaguars-Eagles under 48.5 to 45.5
Bears-Giants under 39.5 to 38.5