Sunday NFL Week 3 Sharp Report


1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1) 

The Ravens just suffered a brutal 42-38 collapse to the Dolphins, losing outright as 3.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Patriots just beat the Steelers 17-14, pushing as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the short chalk with Lamar Jackson and company. However, despite Baltimore receiving 88% of bets at DraftKings, we've seen the Ravens fall from -3 to -2.5. Why would oddsmakers drop the line to give out a better number on Baltimore when the public is already hammering them to begin with? Because pro money came in on the Patriots +3, triggering reverse line movement in New England's favor. Dogs are 18-14-1 ATS (56%) this season. Dogs who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Patriots here, are 124-95 ATS (57%) since 2019. New England is only receiving 12% of bets, making the Patriots the top contrarian play of the day. 


4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams (1-1) at Arizona Cardinals (1-1)

Both of these NFC West rivals are coming off their first wins of the season. The Rams took down the Falcons 31-27 but failed to cover as 10-point home favorite. On the other hand, the Cardinals just came from behind to shock the Raiders 29-23, winning outright as 5.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4.5-point road favorite. Despite being 0-2 ATS, the public is still sticking with the defending Super Bowl Champs. However, despite receiving 72% of bets, we've seen the Rams fall from -4.5 to -3.5. This signals pro money grabbing the points with the contrarian divisional dog Cardinals at home. Kyler Murray is 17-8 ATS (68%) in his career as a dog. Sharps have also targeted the under here, dropping the total from 51.5 to 48.5. The under is only receiving 29% bets but 45% money, a "low bets, higher dollars" wiseguy discrepancy. Unders are 22-11 (67%) this season.


8:20 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers (1-1) at Denver Broncos (1-1)

The 49ers just crushed the Seahawks 27-7, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Broncos just eked out a 16-9 win over the Texans but failed to cover as 10-point home favorites. This Sunday Night Football line opened with Denver listed as a 2-point home favorite. Currently 73% of bets and 81% of money is backing the 49ers, signaling a combination of both public and sharp money in their favor. As a result, the 49ers have flipped from a 2-point road dog to a 1.5-point road favorite. To put it another way, San Francisco is receiving sharp "dog-to-favorite" line movement. The 49ers hold an edge in the coaching department with veteran Kyle Shanahan facing rookie Nathaniel Hackett. 49ers start TE George Kittle will also be making his season debut. Jimmy Garoppolo is 17-8 ATS (68%) in his career on the road. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, is 61% ATS to the road team historically. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 46 to 44. Both teams are 2-0 to the under. Primetime unders are 6-2 this season and 92-63 (59%) since 2019. 


More Week 3 Line Moves

Lions +7 to +6 at Vikings

Packers +3 to +1 at Bucs

Falcons +3 to +1 at Seahawks

Jags +10 to +3 at Chargers (Herbert Questionable)

Raiders +2 to -2 at Titans

Eagles -3 to -6.5 at Commanders

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