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Sunday NFL Week 3 Sharp Report


Today the weekend wraps up with Week 2 of the NFL. For extensive Saturday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 3 matchups today...
1 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at Buffalo Bills
After losing their season openers, both of these non-conference opponents rebounded with big Week 2 victories. Washington (1-1 SU, 0-2 ATS) snuck by the Giants 30-29 on Thursday Night Football, although they failed to cover as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Bills (1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS) crushed the Dolphins 35-0, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. The public isn't scared off by the big number and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the high-flying Bills. However, despite this lopsided action we've seen Buffalo fall from -9.5 to -7. This signals some steady sharp reverse line movement on the road dog Football Team plus the points. Dogs with a line move in their favor are 67-45 ATS (59 percent) since last season. Dogs who failed to cover in their first two games have gone 52-32 ATS (62 percent) over the past decade. Washington also enjoys a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Bills played on Sunday. Wiseguys are leaning under here, as the total has fallen from 46.5 to 45.5. The forecast calls for 10-15 MPH winds at New Era Stadium. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically.
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at New York Giants
Both of these non-division teams are 0-2 and looking for their first win. The Falcons (0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS) just got destroyed by the Bucs 48-25, failing to cover as 13-point road dogs. Atlanta has now been outscored 80-31 through two games. On the other hand, the Giants (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) battled hard on Thursday night but lost to Washington 30-29, although New York did manage to cover as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with the Giants listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is undecided and doesn't know which bad team to back. However, we've seen the Falcons  3 get juiced up to -120 and some shops have even fallen to 2.5. This indicates respected monrey backing Atlanta. Over the past decade, when two teams who are 0-2 face off in Week 3, the dog is 10-6 ATS (63 percent). Also, teams off a 20-point or more blowout loss (like Atlanta) are roughly 54 percent ATS the following game over the past decade. Short road dogs  6 or less are 9-1 ATS through two weeks this season.
4:25 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Rams
This possible NFC Championship game showdown will be by far the most popular and heavily bet game of the week. The Bucs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) are coming off an impressive 48-25 shellacking of the Falcons, easily covering as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) edged the Colts 27-24 in Week 2, although they failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Wiseguys have pounced on Tom Brady and the Bucs as a short dog, steaming Tampa Bay from  1.5 to -1.5. Tampa Bay matches the classic "dog to favorite" line move system that pros have leaned on for years. If you're late to the party, the Bucs may be more appealing as a moneyline play (-120) instead of laying the small points. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here. The total opened at a super-high 54 and has been bet up to 55.5. Both teams are 2-0 to the over this season. 
More Sunday Line Moves
Cardinals -7 to -7.5 at Jaguars
Ravens-Lions Over 49 to 50.5
Dolphins  4.5 to  3.5 at Raiders
Seahawks-Vikings Under 56 to 54.5
Packers-49ers Over 48 to 50.5
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