Sunday NFL Week 2 Sharp Report

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1 p.m. ET: New England Patriots (0-1) at Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0)

These AFC non-division foes are coming off polar opposite performances in Week 1. The Patriots fell to the Dolphins 20-7, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Steelers earned a 23-20 overtime win over the Bengals, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with New England listed as a 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 74% of bets at DraftKings are taking the points with the Steelers at home. However, despite this lopsided betting in favor of Pittsburgh we've actually seen the line move further to the New England -1.5 to -2.5. This signals sharp "fade the trendy dog" reverse line movement on the Patriots, with pros backing New England on the road. Teams that lost by 10 or more points in their season opener have gone 40-25 ATS (62%) in Week 2 over the past decade. Pittsburgh will miss star pass rusher TJ Watt with a pectoral injury. Sharps have also leaned under, dropping the total from 42.5 to 40.5. The under is receiving 60% of bets but 81% of the money, a sharp bet discrepancy. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) at New Orleans Saints (1-0)

Both of these NFC South rivals are coming off Week 1 wins, The Bucs brushed aside the Cowboys 19-3, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints edged the Falcons 27-26, although New Orleans failed to cover as 5.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point road favorite. Nearly 80% of bets are laying the short chalk with Tom Brady and company. However, smart money has sided with the Saints, dropping the line from 3 to 2.5. The Saints have value as a divisional dog (157-131 ATS, 55% since 2019) and a contrarian home dog with reverse line movement in their favor. Tampa Bay will be without WR Chris Godwin and OT Donovan Smith due to injuries. Pros have also hit this under, dropping the total from 46 to 44. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts (0-0-1) at Jacksonville Jaguars (0-1)

The Colts are coming off a 20-20 tie agains the Texans, failing to cover as 7-point road favorites. On the flip side, the Jaguars fell to the Commanders 28-22, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with the Colts listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public sees an easy with and cover with Indianapolis. However, despite 70% of bets laying the points with the Colts, we've seen this line fall from 4 to 3. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Jaguars, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Jacksonville has value as a divisional dog (55% ATS since 2019). The Colts will miss several key starters due to injury, including WR Michael Pittman and LB Shaquille Leonard. 

 

More Sunday Line Moves

Giants -1 to -2 vs Panthers

Dolphins +4 to +3.5 at Ravens

Raiders -2.5 to -5.5 vs Cardinals

Jets-Browns Under 42 to 39.5

Bears-Packers Under 45 to 41.5

Seahawks-49ers Under 44 to 40.5

Commanders-Lions Over 46 to 48.5

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