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Sunday NFL Week 2 Sharp Report


Today the weekend wraps up with Week 2 of the NFL. For extensive Saturday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 2 matchups today...
1 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles
Both of these NFC opponents are coming off Week 1 victories. The 49ers (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) beat the Lions 41-33, although they failed to cover as 9.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) dominated the Falcons 32-6, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 3.5-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with the high-flying 49ers. However, this line has actually fallen from 49ers -3.5 to -3. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Eagles, with wiseguys pouncing on Philadelphia plus the hook ( 3.5) at home. San Francisco has to overcome the challenge of being a West Coast team traveling East for a 1 p.m. ET game, which oftentimes screws up the body clocks of players. San Francisco is also playing their second straight road game, which can be a difficult schedule spot. Brad Allen, the lead referee, has historically favored home teams (58-47 ATS, 55.2%).
1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
The Bills dropped their season opener to the Steelers 23-16 last week, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the pesky Dolphins walked into Foxboro and upset the Patriots 17-16 as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. The public says the Bills are a great team and have to bounce back and roll Miami. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen the line remain stagnant at 3.5. In fact, some shops look to be inching down to 3. This signals some sharp line freeze action and possible reverse line movement buying low on the Dolphins, particularly at  3.5 with the hook. Miami has value as a contrarian home divisional dog. Divisional dogs often bark loudest due to the built in familiarity leveling the playing field. September divisional dogs are roughly 60% ATS over the past decade. 
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Indianapolis Colts
This non-conference matchup is one of the ultimate buy-low, sell-high plays of Week 2. The Rams crushed the Bears 34-14 on Sunday Night Football, easily covering as 9.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Colts fell to the Seahawks 28-16, failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 4-point road favorite. The public can't believe this line is so low and they're rushing to the window to lay the points with the Rams, expecting an easy blowout win and cover. However, despite this lopsided betting toward Los Angeles, the line has remained at -4 or even dropped to -3.5. This signals some wiseguy liability on the Colts. The Rams are also in a tough schedule spot, as they're a West Coast team going East for an early 1 p.m. game. Indianapolis is one of the top contrarian plays of the week as well, as roughly 75% of tickets are riding with the Rams. 
4:05 p.m. ET: Minnesota Vikings at Arizona Cardinals
The public perception of these teams couldn't be more different. The Vikings just fell to the lowly Bengals 27-24, losing outright as 3-point road favorite. Meanwhile, the Cardinals looked unstoppable in a dominant 38-13 victory over the Titans, winning outright as 2.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. The public is pounding the Cardinals, who looked far better in Week 1 than the Vikings. However, this line has fallen from 4.5 to 3.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the road dog. Short road dogs  6 or less are 6-1 ATS this season and went 51-33 ATS (61%) last season. Dogs that missed the playoffs last year, last Minnesota, went 9-2 ATS in Week 1. 
More Sunday Moves
Saints-Panthers 46.5 to 44.5
Bengals  3 to  2.5 at Bears
Raiders-Steelers Under 48 to 46.5
Patriots -3.5 to -6 at Jets
Falcons-Bucs Under 53 to 51.5
Titans-Seahawks Over 53 to 54
Chargers-Cowboys Over 52 to 55
Chiefs -2.5 to -3.5 at Ravens
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