Sunday NFL Week 18 Sharp Report


Today the NFL regular season comes to an end with Week 18.

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is leaning for today's NFL slate...
1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
This is a must win for both teams as they find themselves on the playoff bubble. The Steelers (8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS) are 3-2 over their last five games and just beat the Brown 26-14, covering as 1-point home favorites. On the flipside, the Ravens (8-8 SU, 8-8 ATS) have lost five straight and just fell to the Rams 20-19, although Baltimore covered as 7-point home favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. We've seen respected money grab the Steelers plus the points, dropping the line from 6.5 to 3.5. Pittsburgh has value as a road divisional dog and a dog with a low total (41). Short road dogs  6 or less are 48-27 ATS (64%) this season. Mike Tomlin is 6-4 ATS this season as a dog and 44-23 ATS (66%) in his career as a dog. The total has fallen from 42 to 41. Weather could benefit the under here, with forecasts in the low 30s with possible rain and 10 MPH winds. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (58% ATS) and unders (57%). 
4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
This is a huge game for two NFC West teams battling for playoff positioning. The 49ers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) currently occupy the 6-seed and have gone 6-2 over their last eight games. San Francisco just beat Houston 23-7, covering as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Rams (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS) have won five straight and just edged the Ravens 20-19, although they failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. This line opened with the Rams listed as a 6-point home favorite. Sharps have jumped on the road dog plus the points, dropping the line from 6 to 3.5. The 49ers have value as a road divisional dog with a line move in their favor. Kyle Shanahan is 24-17 ATS (59%) as a dog. At BetMGM, San Francisco is receiving 52% of bets but 66% of dollars, a sharp bet split discrepancy. 

8:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

This AFC West matchup was flexed to Sunday Night as both teams are on the bubble and fighting for their playoff lives. The Chargers (9-7 SU, 8-8 ATS) just crushed the Broncos 34-13, easily covering as 8-point home favorites. On the other side, the Raiders (9-7 SU, 7-9 ATS) Have won three straight and just upset the Colts 23-20, winning outright as 8.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Chargers listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Heavily lopsided public betting has ticked the line up from 2.5 to 3. We've seen some sharp buyback on the Raiders getting the key number of  3. Vegas has value as a contrarian divisional dog at home. Primetime dogs are 29-24 ATS (55%) this season. We could also be looking at a higher scoring game. The total has been steamed up from 47.5 to 49. At BetMGM, the over is receiving 51% of bets but 71% of dollars, indicating wiseguy support. 


Updated Super Bowl Odds at BetMGM

Packers  400

Chiefs  500

Bills, Bucs  800

Rams, Titans  900

Cowboys  1200

Patriots, Cardinals  1800

Bengals, Colts  2000

49ers, Chargers  4000

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