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Sunday NFL Week 17 Sharp Report

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Today the weekend wraps up with Week 17 of the NFL season. 

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where the smart money is leaning for today's NFL slate...
 
 

1 p.m. ET: Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans

The Dolphins (8-7 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) are red-hot and have won seven straight, most recently beating the Saints 20-3 and easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (10-5 SU, 9-6 ATS) have won two of their last three and just upset the 49ers 20-17, winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. At BetMGM, 57% of bets are laying the points with Tennessee, yet we've seen this line fall from 3.5 to 3. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Dolphins, with wiseguys grabbing the hook. Road dogs  7 or less are 63-29 ATS (68%) this season. Conference dogs are 92-70 ATS (57%). Miami also has value as a dog in a total total game (40). Shawn Smith, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (35-22 ATS, 61%). Tua Tagovailoa is 6-2 ATS (75%) as a dog in his career. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals

The Chiefs (11-4 SU, 8-7 ATS) have won eight games in a row and just demolished the Steelers 36-10, easily covering as 10-point home favorites. Similarly, the Bengals (9-6 SU, 8-7 ATS) have won two straight and just crushed the Ravens 41-21, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 4-point road favorite. Early in the week we saw Kansas City get steamed up from -4 to -5. But over the past 24-hours, we've seen heavy wiseguy buyback on the Bengals, dropping the line back down to 4. Some shops are even falling to 3.5. Essentially all late movement is breaking toward the Bengals. John Hussey, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (59-48 ATS, 55%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 71-41 ATS (63%) this season. We could also be in for a higher scoring game, as the total has ticked up from 47 to 50.5. The over is 6-3 in the last nine Bengals games and 4-2 in the last six Chiefs games. 

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers 

The Texans (4-11 SU, 7-8 ATS) have won two straight games and just shocked the Chargers 41-29, winning outright as 13.5-point home dogs. Conversely, the 49ers (8-7 SU, 7-8 ATS) just fell to the Titans 20-17, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with San Francisco listed as a 15-point home favorite. Respected money has pounced on Houston getting big points, dropping the line from 15 to 12.5. This move was due in large part to Jimmy Garoppolo's thumb injury, who is expected to miss the game. Rookie Trey Lance is expected to get the start in his place. Houston has value as a double-digit dog in a low total game (44). Dogs getting 11 or more points with a total of 46 or less are roughly 58% ATS over the past decade. Road dogs are 79-60 ATS (57%) this season. 

 

More Week 17 Moves

Bears -4 to -6.5 vs Giants

Bucs -11 to -13.5 at Jets

Eagles -3 to -4.5 at Washington

Rams -2.5 to -6 at Ravens

Chargers -6 to -7.5 vs Broncos

Cowboys -3 to -6.5 vs Cardinals

Lions  9.5 to  7.5 at Seahawks

Packers -7 to -13 vs Vikings

 
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