Sunday NFL Week 16 Sharp Report

burrow1

NFL underdogs went a perfect 2-0 ATS on Christmas Day. In the early game, the Browns lost 24-22 to the Packers but Cleveland covered as 7.5-point road dogs. In the nightcap, the Colts upset the Cardinals 22-16, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. Unders went 2-0 as well. 

Dogs improve to 120-104 ATS (54%) this season while unders improve to 127-98 (56%). 

Today we have 12 more Week 16 games to get down on. Let's discuss which way the smart money is leaning... 

 

1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals

The Ravens (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) have lost three straight and just fell to the Packers 31-30, although Baltimore covered as 9-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Bengals (8-6 SU, 7-7 ATS) just beat the Broncos 15-10, winning outright as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. Respected money laid the points with Cincinnati early in the week, driving the line up from Bengals -2.5 to -3. But then we saw this line balloon to Bengals -7 on Saturday when word surfaced that the Ravens would be without both of their top two quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson and Tyler Huntley. In their place, journeyman backup Josh Johnson will get the start for Baltimore. Cincinnati could be a teaser option (-7 to -1). We've also seen this total fall from 43.5 to 41.5. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots

The Bills (8-6 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) just waxed the Panthers 31-14, covering as 14.5-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Patriots (9-5 SU, 9-5 ATS) just fell to the Colts 27-17, failing to cover as 1-point road dogs. This line opened with New England listed as a 2-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw this line inch up to Patriots -2.5. But over the past 24-hours we've seen wiseguys steam the Bills, dropping the line down to Patriots -1. Short road dogs 3 or less are 25-12 ATS (68%) this season. Road divisional dogs are 25-17 ATS (60%). Josh Allen is 15-9 ATS (62%) in his career as a dog. Shawn Smith, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (34-22 ATS (60%). Respected money is also leaning under, as the total dropped from 44.5 to 43.5. When the total is 45 or less, the under is 46-38 (55%) this season. Late season divisional unders are roughly 57% over the past decade. The forecast calls for mid 30s with 10-15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 41-26 (61%). 

 

1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets

The Jags (2-12 SU, 4-10 ATS) have dropped six straight and just fell to the Texans 30-16, losing outright as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Jets (3-11 SU, 4-10 ATS) have lost three straight and just fell to the Dolphins 31-24, although New York covered as 10-point road dogs. This line opened with New York listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. Early money laid the points with the Jets, driving New York up to -2.5. Then we saw the line fall to a pick'em once Jets HC Robert Saleh tested positive for COVID. But then the line ticked back up to Jets -2. Essentially all liability has been on the Jets. The forecast calls for low 30s with possibly some rain and 15 MPH winds. The total is 41.5. Tony Corrente, the lead ref, is 58% to the under historically. The Jags are 11-3 to the under this season. 

 

More Week 16 Moves

Panthers 11.5 to 10 vs Bucs

Bucs-Panthers Under 45 to 42.5

Eagles -9 to -10 vs Giants

Chargers-Texans Under 47 to 45.5

Falcons -4.5 to -6.5 vs Lions

Bears-Seahawks Under 43.5 to 41.5

Steelers-Chiefs Under 46.5 to 45.5

Dolphins 3 to -2.5 at Saints

back to news

Subscriber Only News  Vsin Exclusive

View All

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

A Numbers Game: Pay attention to stats and trends that are completely lopsided. For example, Matt Rhule and the Panthers are 1-25 straight up when allowing their opponent to score 17 or more points.

Follow The Money: Be aware of Miami's backloaded schedule when betting either side of their 11.5 win total. In December: at SF, at LAC, at BUF, vs GB.

View tips for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Adam Burke: Washington -2.5 vs UCLA

Pauly Howard: Golden Knights Under 97 points for the season.

View new sortable Picks at a Glance page for Pro subscribers

Screen_Shot_2022-08-22_at_12.19.15_AM

Screen_Shot_2022-09-29_at_5.10.08_PM

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

View more CFB tools for Pro subscribers

View more NFL tools for Pro subscribers

Close