Sunday NFL Week 14 Sharp Report

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Today the weekend wraps up with Week 14 of the NFL regular season. Up to this point, underdogs have gone 107-86 ATS (55%). Road dogs are 67-44 ATS (60%) and divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%). Unders have also been a smart bet, going 111-83 (57%). Since Week 10, unders are 37-22 (63%). Non-conference unders are 41-22 (65%). Windy unders 10 MPH or more are 38-21 (64%). Late season divisional unders are 12-4 (75%) since Week 11.

Here are today's Under system matches

 

Windy Unders (64%)

Chiefs-Raiders Under 48

Browns-Ravens Under 42.5

Jets-Saints Under 43

Packers-Bears Under 43

 

Non-Conference Unders (65%)

Texans-Seahawks Under 40.5

Bengals-49ers Under 49

Broncos-Lions Under 42

Bucs-Bills Under 54.5

Chargers-Giants Under 43

Jets-Saints Under 43

 

Late Season Divisional Unders (75%)

WFT-Cowboys Under 48

Chiefs-Raiders Under 48

Browns-Ravens Under 42.5

Panthers-Falcons Under 41

Titans-Jags Under 43.5

Packers-Bears Under 43

 

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 14 matchups today...

 

1 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

The Ravens (8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS) just fell to the Steelers 20-19, losing outright as 4-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) are coming off a bye and just lost to the Ravens 10-16, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Cleveland listed as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has laid the points with the Browns, steaming Cleveland up from -1.5 to -3. Favorites off a bye, like Cleveland, are roughly 57% ATS over the past decade. According to BetMGM, the Browns are only receiving 35% of bets but 60% of money, a sharp "low bets, higher dollars" betting split. The total has fallen from 43 to 42.5.The forecast calls for low 40s with 15 MPH winds, which qualifies as a "Windy Under" system match. Late season divisional unders are 12-4 (75%) since Week 11. 

 

1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys at Washington Football Team

The first-place Cowboys (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) just beat the Saints 27-17, covering as 6.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, red-hot Washington (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) has won four straight, including a 17-15 win over the Raiders last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 5-point road favorite. We've seen this line fall from 5 to 4, signaling some sharp money grabbing the points with the Football Team. There was some buyback on Dallas, pushing WFT back to 4.5. Still, the line has leaned Washington from start to current. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 63-33 ATS (66%). The total has ticked down slightly from 49 to 48. The forecast calls for rain and 10-15 MPH winds. December divisional totals 45 or higher have gone under at a 56% clip the past decade. Washington is also in a prime teaser spot ( 4.5 to 10.5), which goes through the key numbers of 7 and 10.

 

1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers

The Falcons (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are 1-3 over their last four games and just fell to the Bucs 30-17, failing to cover as 11-point home dogs. Similarly, the Panthers (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are also 1-3 over their last four and just fell to the Dolphins 33-10, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Carolina listed as a 3-point home favorite. With home teams typically receiving a couple points for home field advantage, oddsmakers are telling you that the Falcons would be a slight favorite on a neutral field. Respected money has grabbed the Falcons at the key number of 3, dropping the line to 2.5. Dogs off a loss are 33-22 ATS (60%) this season. Divisional dogs are 30-23 ATS (57%) and short dogs 3 or less 20-10 ATS (67%). If the Falcons fall to 2.5, they will be an ideal teaser candidate ( 2.5 to 8.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. Sharp money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 43 to 41. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Cincinnati Bengals

The 49ers (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) just fell to the Seahawks 30-23, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. Similarly, the Bengals (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS) just lost to the Chargers 41-22, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Cincinnati laying 2-points at home but has since flipped to San Francisco -1.5. This signals sharp "dog to favorite" wiseguy action on the 49ers. Non-conference favorites with high totals of 47 or more are roughly 59% ATS over the past decade. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (66-49 ATS, 57%). The 49ers are receiving 45% of bets but a whopping 70% of dollars at BetMGM, signaling wiseguy support in their favor. We've also seen some over money show up, raising the total from 47.5 to 49.  Both teams are 2-0 to the over their last two games. 

 

More Week 14 Moves

Raiders-Chiefs Under 50 to 48

Jags 10.5 to 8.5 at Titans

Seahawks -6.5 to -8.5 at Texans

Broncos -8 to -11.5 vs Lions

Giants-Chargers Under 45.5 to 4

Bills-Bucs Over 52.5 to 54.5

Bears-Packers Under 44.5 to 43

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