Sunday NFL Week 12 Sharp Report



Today the weekend wraps up with Week 12 of the NFL regular season. Up to this point, underdogs have dominated with a 95-71 ATS (57%) record. Road dogs have gone 63-36 ATS (64%) while road dogs  7 or less are a whopping 52-19 ATS (73%). 

Here are today's "road dog 7 or less" matches

Titans 7 at Patriots

Browns 3.5 at Ravens

Vikings 3.5 at 49ers

Steelers 3.5 at Bengals

Jets 2.5 at Texans

Unders have also been highly profitable, going 96-71 (58%). Unders are 22-10 since Week 10. When the total is 45 or less, the under is 34-20 (63%). Non-conference unders are 37-18 (67%). 

Here are today's non-conference unders

Jaguars-Falcons Under 45.5

Colts-Buccaneers Under 53.5

Dolphins-Panthers Under 42

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 12 matchups today...


1 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts

The Bucs (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) just dominated the Giants 30-10, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. The win snapped a two-game losing skid for Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-5 SU, 7-4 ATS) have won three straight and are 6-2 in their last 8 games. Indianapolis just crushed Buffalo 41-15, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with the Bucs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with Tom Brady and the defending champs. However, this line has remained frozen at 3 and even dipped to 2.5 throughout the week, signaling liability on the Colts plus the points. Dogs off a blowout win of 20 points are 17-11 ATS (61%) over the past two seasons. The Colts have a rest advantage as Tampa Bay is on a short week having just played on Monday night. 


4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers

The Rams (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost two straight games, most recently falling to the 49ers 31-10, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites. Similarly, the Packers (8-3 SU, 9-2 ATS) have lost two of their last three games and just fell to the Vikings 34-31, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the short spread with Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau. However, this line has completely flipped to Rams -2. This indicates sharp "Dog to Favorite" line movement on Los Angeles, who enjoys a rest advantage and are coming off a bye. Sean McVay is 14-7 ATS (67%) off a loss in his career. We've also seen some wiseguy money hit the under, dropping the total from 50 to 47. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (30 degrees) and 10-12 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 35-16 (69%) this season. 
8:20 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
The Browns (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) are coming off a 13-10 win over the Lions, although Cleveland failed to cover as 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Ravens (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) just edged the Bears 16-13, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 5-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the road dog Browns, dropping Cleveland from  5 to  3.5. Many books are juicing up the Browns 3.5 to -115, signaling a possible further drop down to the key number of 3. Divisional dogs are 57% ATS this season, with primetime dogs are 22-12 ATS (65%). The total is 47. The forecast calls for 10 MPH winds. Late season divisional unders are roughly 56% the last decade.
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