Sunday NFL Week 11 Sharp Report

seahawks

 

Today the weekend wraps up with Week 11 of the NFL regular season. Underdogs have turned a consistent profit all season, going 86-63 ATS (58%). Road dogs have gone 56-33 ATS (63%) while road dogs 7 or less are 47-17 ATS (73%). Unders are 85-65 (57%) while non-conference unders are 32-17 (65%).

Another system to keep an eye out for is "windy unders." When the wind blows 10 MPH or more the under is 32-15 (68%) this season. Here are today's windy under matches...

Bears-Ravens Under 44

Browns-Lions Under 42.5

Bills-Colts Under 49.5

Chiefs-Cowboys Under 56.5

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 11 matchups today...

 

1 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

These NFC division rivals are both coming off impressive victories. The Packers (8-2 SU, 9-1 ATS) just shut out the Seahawks 17-0, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Vikings (4-5 SU, 5-4 ATS) just upset the Chargers 27-20, winning outright as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window as fast as they can to lay the points with Aaron Rodgers. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has fallen from 2.5 to 1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings. Conference dogs 7 or less are 47-26 (64%) this season. Divisional dogs are 20-17 ATS (54%) this season and roughly 56% ATS the past five seasons. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 49 to 47. Late season divisional unders (Week 11 or later) have been a smart bet historically, cashing roughly 57% of the time over the past decade. 

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Las Vegas Raiders

Both of these AFC playoff hopefuls are looking to snap two-game losing skids. The Bengals (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) just got waxed by the Browns 41-16, losing outright as 2-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) just got crushed by the Chiefs 41-14, failing to cover as 2.5-point home dogs. This line opened at a pick'em. Respected money has gotten down on Cincinnati, pushing the Bengals from a pick to a 1.5-point road favorite. The Bengals have a big rest advantage as Cincinnati is coming off a bye while Las Vegas played on Sunday night. Favorites off a bye are roughly 56% ATS the decade, with road favorites roughly 64% ATS. The Bengals are 33 in point differential. The Raiders are -20. Respected money has also leaned over here, inching the total up from 49 to 50.5. Jerome Boger, the lead ref, has historically favored overs (59.5%). 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

These NFC rivals are both looking to bounce back from Week 10 losses. The Cardinals (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) have dropped two of their last three games after starting 7-0. Arizona just fell to the Panthers 34-10, losing outright as 7-point home favorites. The Seahawks (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) are also struggling, going just 1-4 over their last five games. Seattle just got beaten down by the Packers 17-0 last week, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. The early lookahead line was Seahawks -2. We saw this line flip to Cardinals -2.5 behind heavy public support and the possible return of Kyler Murray. But then when it was announced that Murray would miss this game and Colt McCoy would start in his place, a flood of Seahawks money poured in, driving Seattle back to a 2.5-point home favorite. We've also seen some under money show up, dropping the total from 50 to 46.5. This would also match the profitable "late season divisional under" system. 

 

More Sunday Moves

Browns -10 to -12.5 vs Lions

Lions-Browns Under 44.5 to 42.5

Panthers -2.5 to -3.5 vs Washington

Bears 6 to 5 vs Ravens

Eagles -1.5 to -2.5 vs Saints

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