Sunday NFL Week 10 Sharp Report

November 13, 2022 12:46 AM

Through nine weeks of NFL action, underdogs and unders have produced a consistent profit. Dogs are 78-56 ATS (58%) this season, with "sweet spot" dogs +3.5 or more 52-28 ATS (65%). Meanwhile, unders have gone 82-55 (60%). Unders that fall at least a half point are 45-25 (64%) and divisional unders are 31-13 (70%). 

With these trends in mind, let's examine a trio of Week 10 games receiving sharp action on Sunday...


9:30 a.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5, 45)

The Seahawks (6-3) have won four straight games and just beat the Cardinals 31-21, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Bucs (4-5) just snapped a three-game losing skid with a 16-13 win over the Rams, pushing as 3-point home favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 1.5-point neutral site favorite (this game will be played in Munich, Germany). The public thinks the wrong team is favored and they're grabbing the points with the red-hot Seahawks. However, despite 60% of bets backing Seattle, we've actually seen this line move further toward Tampa Bay (-1.5 to -2.5). This signals smart money fading the trendy dog Seahawks and instead laying the points with the contrarian favorite Bucs. Tampa Bay also has buy-low value as a "bad" ATS team (2-6-1) against a sell-high "good" ATS team (6-3). 


1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints (-1, 39.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Saints (3-6) have lost three of their last four games and just fell to the Ravens 27-13, failing to cover as 1.5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Steelers (2-6) are coming off a bye and have gone just 1-6 since winning their season opener. Pittsburgh got crushed by Philadelphia 35-13 their last time out, failing to cover as 11.5-point road dogs. This line opened with the Saints listed as a 3-point road favorite. Currently 55% of bets are laying the points with New Orleans, yet we've seen the Saints fall from -3 to -1. Some shops are even trending toward a pick'em. This indicates sharp action on the Steelers, with pros moving the line in the home team's favor. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more are 8-3 ATS this season. Dogs who failed to cover in their previous game are 33-20 ATS (62%). Mike Tomlin is 48-26 ATS (65%) in his career. Pittsburgh has a massive rest advantage coming off a bye while the Saints are on a short week having just played in Monday. Pittsburgh gets a boost with the return of edge rusher T.J. Watt. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 40.5 to 39.5. The forecast calls for high 30s with 10 MPH winds. 


1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Miami Dolphins (-3.5, 49.5)

The Browns (3-5) are coming off a bye having just snapped a four-game losing streak with a 32-13 over the Bengals, winning outright as a 3-point home dog. On the other hand, the Dolphins (6-3) have won three straight games and just held off the Bears 35-32 but failed to cover as 4-point road favorites. This line opened with the Dolphins listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. The public sees an easy win and cover for Miami. However, despite receiving 72% of bets the Dolphins have fallen from -5.5 to -3.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Browns, with pros grabbing the points with the road dog. Dogs with a severe line move of 2-points or more in their direction are 12-6 ATS (67%) this season. Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season are 58-39 ATS (60%). We could also be looking at a higher scoring game here, as the total has been steamed up from 46.5 to 49.5. 

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