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Sunday NFL Week 10 Sharp Report

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Today the weekend wraps up with Week 10 of the NFL regular season. Underdogs have dominated consistently all season, going 79-57 ATS (58%). Home field advantage isn't what it used to be as road dogs have gone an impressive 51-30 ATS (63%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) and short road dogs 6 or less are 33-14 ATS (70%). Primetime dogs are a sparkling 20-8 ATS (71%). Unders are 75-61 (55%) while non-conference unders are 28-16 (64%).

Windy unders 10 MPH or more are 28-14 (67%). Here are today's windy under matches...

Titans-Saints Under 44

Packers-Seahawks Under 49.5

Broncos-Eagles Under 45.5

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 10 matchups today...

 

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

The Saints (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a disappointing 27-25 loss to the Falcons, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) have won five straight and just shocked the Rams 28-16, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Titans coming off a big win, yet this line hasn't budged an inch. This indicates a sharp line freeze on the Saints. Road dogs are 51-30 ATS (63%) this season and short road dogs 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%). Road dogs off a loss are 25-18 ATS (58%).

 

1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

The Browns (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bengals 41-16 last week, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three straight and just waxed the Panthers 24-6, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the Browns, dropping Cleveland from 3 to 2.5. Throughout the week, Cleveland even touched 1.5 before the news of Nick Chubb missing this game due to COVID rose the line back to 2.5. Short road dogs 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%) this season and conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%). Dogs off a blowout win of 20-points or more are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past two seasons. Cleveland is also in a prime teaser spot ( 2.5 to 8.5), which takes you through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

The Seahawks (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-7 win over the Jags, easily covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) just fell to the Chiefs 13-7 without Aaron Rodgers, although Jordan Love was able to help the Packers cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 5 to 3.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the Seahawks plus the points. One big reason for the move toward Seattle: star QB Russell Wilson was cleared to return from his finger injury. The Seahawks have a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Packers played on Sunday. Short road dogs 6 or less 33-14 ATS (70%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 56-34 ATS (62%). Seattle also has value as a dog off a blowout win of 20 points. These teams are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past two seasons. 

 

8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, most recently edging the Packers 13-7 but failing to cover as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just fell to the Giants 23-16, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. The loss snapped a two-game win streak for Vegas. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Kansas City, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement targeting the Raiders at the key number of 3. Conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) this season. Primetime dogs are 20-8 ATS (71%). The Raiders also have value as a contrarian divisional dog in a heavily bet game. The Chiefs are just 9-16 ATS (36%) since winning the Super Bowl. 

 

More Week 10 Line Moves

Falcons 9 to 8 at Cowboys

Lions 9 to 6.5 at Steelers (No Big Ben)

Vikings-Chargers Over 52 to 53.5

Panthers-Cardinals Under 45 to 43

Eagles 2.5 to 1.5 at Broncos

49ers 4.5 to 3.5 vs Rams

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