Sunday NFL Week 10 Sharp Report

carr

 

Today the weekend wraps up with Week 10 of the NFL regular season. Underdogs have dominated consistently all season, going 79-57 ATS (58%). Home field advantage isn't what it used to be as road dogs have gone an impressive 51-30 ATS (63%). Conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) and short road dogs 6 or less are 33-14 ATS (70%). Primetime dogs are a sparkling 20-8 ATS (71%). Unders are 75-61 (55%) while non-conference unders are 28-16 (64%).

Windy unders 10 MPH or more are 28-14 (67%). Here are today's windy under matches...

Titans-Saints Under 44

Packers-Seahawks Under 49.5

Broncos-Eagles Under 45.5

For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable of the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several NFL Week 10 matchups today...

 

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans

The Saints (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a disappointing 27-25 loss to the Falcons, losing outright as 6.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Titans (7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS) have won five straight and just shocked the Rams 28-16, winning outright as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Titans coming off a big win, yet this line hasn't budged an inch. This indicates a sharp line freeze on the Saints. Road dogs are 51-30 ATS (63%) this season and short road dogs 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%). Road dogs off a loss are 25-18 ATS (58%).

 

1 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at New England Patriots

The Browns (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just crushed the Bengals 41-16 last week, winning outright as 2-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Patriots (5-4 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three straight and just waxed the Panthers 24-6, easily covering as 3.5-point road favorites. This line opened with New England listed as a 3-point home favorite. Respected money has sided with the Browns, dropping Cleveland from 3 to 2.5. Throughout the week, Cleveland even touched 1.5 before the news of Nick Chubb missing this game due to COVID rose the line back to 2.5. Short road dogs 3 or less are 15-5 ATS (75%) this season and conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%). Dogs off a blowout win of 20-points or more are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past two seasons. Cleveland is also in a prime teaser spot ( 2.5 to 8.5), which takes you through the two most important key numbers of 3 and 7. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

The Seahawks (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) are coming off a 31-7 win over the Jags, easily covering as 4-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Packers (7-2 SU, 8-1 ATS) just fell to the Chiefs 13-7 without Aaron Rodgers, although Jordan Love was able to help the Packers cover as 7-point road dogs. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 5-point home favorite. We've seen this line fall from 5 to 3.5, signaling some respected money grabbing the Seahawks plus the points. One big reason for the move toward Seattle: star QB Russell Wilson was cleared to return from his finger injury. The Seahawks have a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye while the Packers played on Sunday. Short road dogs 6 or less 33-14 ATS (70%) this season. Conference dogs 7 or less are 56-34 ATS (62%). Seattle also has value as a dog off a blowout win of 20 points. These teams are 6-2 ATS this season and 17-8 ATS (68%) over the past two seasons. 

 

8:20 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs (5-4 SU, 2-7 ATS) have won two straight and three of their last four, most recently edging the Packers 13-7 but failing to cover as 7-point home favorites. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) just fell to the Giants 23-16, losing outright as 3-point road favorites. The loss snapped a two-game win streak for Vegas. This line opened with the Chiefs listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Kansas City, yet we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5. This signals some sharp reverse line movement targeting the Raiders at the key number of 3. Conference dogs 7 or less are 45-23 ATS (66%) this season. Primetime dogs are 20-8 ATS (71%). The Raiders also have value as a contrarian divisional dog in a heavily bet game. The Chiefs are just 9-16 ATS (36%) since winning the Super Bowl. 

 

More Week 10 Line Moves

Falcons 9 to 8 at Cowboys

Lions 9 to 6.5 at Steelers (No Big Ben)

Vikings-Chargers Over 52 to 53.5

Panthers-Cardinals Under 45 to 43

Eagles 2.5 to 1.5 at Broncos

49ers 4.5 to 3.5 vs Rams

back to news

FREE Email Sign-Up

Get the latest sports betting news & VSiN programming updates with this free daily email from VSiN, The Sports Betting Network.

Headlines

View All
  • Lauri_Markanen

    Tuley's Takes Today: Tuesday recaps, Contest Corner, Wednesday play (12/1)

    As we were getting ready for the Tuesday night sports betting action to begin with the NBA, NHL and college basketball, all I could think of is that I...
  • baylor

    Early CFB Conference Championship Sharp Report

    Today bettors have a loaded Wednesday slate to choose from including 9 NBA games, 6 NHL games and 70 College Basketball games. For an updated breakdown...
  • reynolds

    Hero World Challenge best bets

    While the official PGA Tour season is on pause until January, an elite field of 20 players gathers this week for the Hero World Challenge in the Bahamas....
  • finocchiaro

    Best bets for Font-Aldo UFC card

    After a week off for Thanksgiving, the UFC heads into its last three productions of 2021 starting with Saturday’s UFC Fight Night from the Apex...
  • USATSI_17242641

    Peterson: Best bet for Nebraska vs. NC State

    The Big Ten/ACC Challenge will be decided on Wednesday and NC State will look to both help its profile, and also that of the ACC, as the Wolfpack...
  • vontobelnfl

    NFL Week 12 lessons learned

    It was an emotional week for me in the NFL, as the Indianapolis Colts’ failed cover cost me a share of the first-place prize in the Westgate SuperContest...
  • vontobelnba

    Three NBA trends to watch

    It was a somewhat quiet week in the NBA with the league taking a night off for Thanksgiving, but there is still plenty to discuss. This week we touch...
  • macneil

    Hockey bettors must beat closing line

    In the end, wins and losses are really all that matters, because every sports bettor’s goal is to make money. However, wins and losses don’t...
  • appelbaum

    Five NFL games wise guys like

    NFL underdogs continued to grind out a profit in Week 12, going 8-7 ATS. Dogs are now 101-77 ATS (57 percent) on the season. A $100 bettor taking every...
  • hill

    NFL capsules for Week 13

    Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints The Dallas Cowboys (7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS) visit the New Orleans Saints (5-6 SU and ATS) on Thursday night as both...
  • moore

    Let's re-examine Gonzaga wagers

    Those predictions we heard about this college basketball season being filled with upsets and uncertainty? Well, they seem to be pretty accurate just a...
  • makinennfl

    Simulating rest of NFL season

    (To view the charts associated with this report, subscribe to Point Spread Weekly) All NFL teams have either five or six games left in their 2021-22...

custom-banner-3
VSiN Logo Plus

Free Trial

Make a risk-free bet on VSiN!

VSiN+ FREE TRIAL

  • Afternoon subscriber-only email with highlights and best bets from the day's programs
  • Point Spread Weekly, VSiN's digital magazine on sports betting
  • 24-7 Live video stream of VSiN programs plus replays
  • Any special sport-specified betting guides we do
  • All exclusive subscriber-only stories and data on VSiN.com
Sign Up Now
Google Play
App Store
Close