Sunday NFL Week 1 Sharp Report

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1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans

The Colts went 9-8 last season, narrowly missed the playoffs and then swapped out Carson Wentz for Matt Ryan over the offseason. Indianapolis' win total is 10 with both sides at -110 (DraftKings). On the other hand, the Texans are coming off a 4-13 season, traded away Deshaun Watson and hired Lovie Smith to take over as the head coach. Houston's win total is 4.5 (-110 both sides), which is the lowest of any team this season. This line opened with the Colts listed as an 8-point road favorite. The public sees an easy blowout win for Indy and 78% of bets are laying the points with the Colts. However, we've actually seen this line fall from 8 to 7.5. Some shops are even down to 7. Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they're already hammering Indy to begin with? Because pro money has taken the points with the Texans, causing reverse line movement in favor of the home dog. Week 1 dogs are 53-40 ATS (57%) since 2016. Divisional dogs are 22-8 ATS (73%) in Week 1 since 2016. Wiseguy money has also hit the over, driving the total up from 44 to 45.5. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

The Packers finished 13-4 last season but suffered an early exit in the postseason, losing to San Francisco 13-10 in the Divisional Round. Green Bay's win total is 11 with both sides at -110. Meanwhile, the Vikings went 8-9 last season, missed the playoffs and replaced head coach Mike Zimmer with Kevin O'Connell. Minnesota's win total is 9.5 with both sides -110. This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is all over Aaron Rodgers laying a short spread below a field goal. However, despite 63% of bets taking the Packers, we've seen this line fall from 2.5 down to a pick'em. Early Sunday morning, the Vikings moved to a 1.5-point home favorite. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Vikings, with pros backing Minnesota in a "dog-to-favorite" situational spot. One notable reason for the Vikings steam: Green Bay will miss several key players in this game, including WR Allen Lazard and starting offensive linemen David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins. Minnesota is -125 on the moneyline. Green Bay is 105. Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 49 to 46.5. 

 

4:25 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Tennessee Titans

The Giants went 4-13 last year, missed the playoffs and hired Brian Daboll to take over as head coach. New York's win total is 7 with both sides at -110. On the flip side, the Titans are coming off a 12-5 season but fell to the Bengals 19-16 in the Divisional Round. This line opened with Tennessee listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Titans. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line fall from 6.5 down to 5.5. This signals some wiseguy money grabbing the Giants plus the points. New York is only receiving 23% of bets but 35% of money, indicating a low bets and higher dollars smart money discrepancy. Short road dogs +6 or less are 156-98 (61%) over the past three seasons. The Giants could also be worth a look as a potential teaser. By taking New York up from +5.5 to +11.5 you pass through the key numbers of 7 and 10. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 44. 

 

More Week 1 Line Moves

Dolphins -3 to -3.5 vs Patriots

Eagles -4 to -5 at Lions

Chiefs -3 to -6.5 at Cardinals

Bucs -2 to -2.5 at Cowboys

Saints -3.5 to -5.5 at Falcons

Ravens -5 to -6.5 at Jets

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Wes Reynolds: Colts +6 vs. Chiefs

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