Welcome to Week 12 of the NFL season. For Sunday analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by Mike Palm, Amal Shah, Thomas Gable and William Hill. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to gametime.
Until then, let's discuss a trio of NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors today.
1 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts
This AFC South grudge match has huge playoff implications as both teams are tied atop the division standings. The Titans (7-3 SU, 4-6 ATS) have won two of their last three games, including a huge upset win over the Ravens last week 30-24, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Similarly, the Colts (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won two straight and just posted a dramatic win over the Packers 34-31, covering as 1.5-point home favorites. This line opened with the Colts listed anywhere between 3.5-point and 4.5-point home favorites. A slight majority of bets, along with a heavy dose of respected money, is coming on the road dog Titans, droppIng Tennessee down to + 3. The Titans have value as a divisional dog (32-24 ATS, 57% this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (40-24 ATS, 62%) and a road team with a line move in their favor (51-38 ATS, 57%). This is also a revenge spot for the Titans, who got embarrassed by the Colts 34-17 two weeks ago, losing as 1-point home dogs. The Colts will be without two key players due to COVID: defensive lineman DeForest Buckner and running back Jonathan Taylor. Pros are also eying this over, which has risen from 49.5 to 51. Both teams have been profitable to the over, with the Titans 7-2-1 and the Colts 6-4.
1 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
The Chargers (3-7 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) are tied for the 4th-worst record in the AFC while the Bills (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) are tied for the 3rd-best. The Chargers snapped a three-game losing skid last week, beating the Jets 34-28 but failing to cover as 10-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills had their three-game winning streak come to an end their last time out when they lost to the Cardinals 32-30 on a last-second Hail Mary, although they managed to cover as 3-point road dogs. This line opened with Buffalo listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public says give me Bills Mafia off a bye against an inferior team. However, despite the majority of tickets laying the points with Buffalo, we've seen this line tumble from -6 to -4.5. This signals respected money coming in on Justin Herbert and the Chargers, causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 39-24 ATS (62%) this season. We've also seen some over money raise this total from 51 to 52. Both teams have been excellent to the over this season. Los Angeles is 7-3 and Buffalo is 8-2.
4:05 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
The 49ers (4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS) have lost three straight games, most recently falling to the Saints 27-13 and failing to cover as 9.5-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rams (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) have won two in a row and just posted a huge upset win over the Bucs on Monday Night Football, winning 27-24 as 4-point road dogs. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 7-point home favorite. The public is more than happy to fade the struggling 49ers and lay the points with the Rams after an impressive primetime. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the Rams fall from -7 to -6.5, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the 49ers. San Francisco has value as a divisional dog (32-24 ATS, 57% this season). San Francisco also has a big rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and the Rams are on a short week having played Monday night. The Cowboys (+ 7, beat Vikings 31-28 in Week 11) and Dolphins (+ 3.5, beat Rams 28-17 in Week 8) both covered in this ultimate "rest vs tired" spot earlier this season. Dogs off a bye are 5-3 ATS (62%) this season. We've also seen some under money drop this total from 46.5 to 44.5.
More Sunday Line Moves
Saints -5.5 to -14.5 at Broncos (no Denver QBs)
Chiefs-Bucs Over 54 to 56.5
Panthers + 4 to + 3 at Vikings
Browns -6 to -7 at Jags
Giants -4.5 to -6 at Bengals
Patriots + 2.5 to + 2 vs Cardinals