Welcome to Week 9 of the NFL season. For Sunday NFL analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself today from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to gametime.
Until then, let's discuss a trio of NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors today.
1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Kansas City Chiefs
This non-conference matchup features a pair of teams trending in opposite directions. The Panthers (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) have dropped three straight games, most recently falling to the Falcons 25-17 on Thursday Night Football, losing straight up as 1.5-point favorites. On the flip side, the Chiefs (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS) have won three straight, most recently crushing the Jets 35-9 and covering as 19.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 12.5-point home favorite. The public could care less about the big number and is rushing to the window to lay the points with the powerhouse Chiefs. However, despite two-thirds of bets backing the home favorites, we've seen Kansas City fall from -12.5 to -10. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Panthers, with respected money backing the road dog to keep it relatively close. Carolina has a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while Kansas City last played Sunday. The Panthers are also a road team with a line move in their favor (38-23, 62% ATS this season). Teddy Bridgewater is 21-5 ATS in his career as a dog, including 4-2 ATS this season.
4:05 p.m. ET: Las Vegas Raiders at San Diego Chargers
This AFC West divisional matchups features a pair of teams heading in opposite directions. The Raiders (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won two of their last three games and just took down the Browns 16-6, winning straight up as 1-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the Chargers (2-5 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) blew yet another big lead, falling to the Broncos 31-30 as 3-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 3-point home favorite. Pros and Joes are in complete unison on the Raiders, with both betting cohorts rushing to the window to grab the points with Vegas. This lopsided action has dropped the Chargers from -3 to a pick'em. Vegas has value as a road divisional dog and also matches several profitable systems this season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 32-13 ATS (71%). Road teams with a line move in their favor are 38-23 ATS (62%). We could also be looking at a higher scoring game in this one. The total is 52.5. Both teams have been profitable to the over this season. Vegas is 6-1 and Los Angeles is 4-3.
8:20 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This Sunday Night Football showdown between NFC South rivals and Super Bowl contenders could be a possible NFC Championship preview. The Saints (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) have won four straight games, most recently beating the Bears 26-23 but failing to cover as 5.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Bucs (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) are riding a three-game win streak and just took down the Giants 25-23 on Monday Night Football, although they failed to cover as 12.5-point road favorites. This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 4.5-point home favorite. Early heavy chalk betting pushed the Bucs from -4.5 to -5.5. But over the last 48-hours or so we've seen sharp buyback hit the Saints, dropping this line down to 4. New Orleans has value as a road divisional dog and a short road dog + 6 or less (32-13 ATS, 71% ATS). New Orleans also has a rest advantage as the Bucs are on a short week. Primetime dogs are 17-8 ATS (68%). The total has fallen bigly from 54.5 to 50.5. Both teams are profitable to the over this season, with New Orleans 7-0 and Tampa Bay 5-3.
More Sunday Line Moves
Colts + 3 to + 1 vs Ravens
Giants + 3.5 to + 2.5 at Washington
Texans-Jaguars Under 51.5 to 49.5
Steelers-Cowboys Over 42 to 44
Broncos-Falcons Over 47.5 to 49
Seahawks-Bills Over 53 to 55