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Sunday NFL Sharp Action Report for Lions-Bears, Saints-Falcons and Rams-Cardinals

December 6, 2020 05:04 AM
Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL season. So far, it's been a great year for betting underdogs. Overall, dogs are 100-77 ATS (56%). Divisional dogs are 35-26 ATS (57%) and home divisional dogs are 14-6 ATS (70%). Short road dogs + 6 or less are 43-25 ATS (63%). Dogs with a line move in their favor (think + 4 to + 3.5) are 49-28 ATS (64%). For Sunday betting analysis and line move update

Welcome to Week 13 of the NFL season. So far, it's been a great year for betting underdogs. Overall, dogs are 100-77 ATS (56%). Divisional dogs are 35-26 ATS (57%) and home divisional dogs are 14-6 ATS (70%). Short road dogs + 6 or less are 43-25 ATS (63%). Dogs with a line move in their favor (think + 4 to + 3.5) are 49-28 ATS (64%).

For Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m. ET to 12-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by Mike Palm, Amal Shah, Thomas Gable and William Hill. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to gametime.

Until then, let's discuss a trio of NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors today. 

1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears

Both of these NFC North opponents are struggling mightily and desperate for a win. The Lions (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) have lost two straight, most recently succumbing to the Texans 41-25 on Thanksgiving and failing to cover as 3-point home dogs. After the game, the Lions fired Head Coach Matt Patricia. Offensive Coordinator Darrell Bevell will take over in his place. Meanwhile, the Bears (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) are mired in a five-game losing skid and just fell to the Packers 41-25, failing to cover as 7.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Chicago listed anywhere between a 3.5-point and 5-point home favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. But we've seen respected money grab the Lions and the points, dropping the line down to the key number of 3. The Lions have value as a divisional dog (35-26 ATS, 57% this season) and a short road dog + 6 or less (43-25 ATS, 63%). Detroit has a rest advantage, having last played on Thursday while the Bears played Sunday. The Lions could also receive a "new coach boost" with Bevell taking over for Patricia. Clay Martin, the lead ref, has historically benefited road teams (73% ATS).

1 p.m. ET: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

These NFC South rivals are both coming off wins. But one is the number one playoff seed in the NFC while the other has a microscopic shot at making the postseason. The Saints (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) just waxed the QB-less Broncos 31-3, easily covering as massive 17-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) have quietly won three of their last four games. most recently crushing the Raiders 43-6 last week, easily winning outright as 3.5-point home dogs. This line opened with the Saints listed as 3-point road favorites. The public is pounding New Orleans. However, despite this lopsided support, the line has remained frozen at 3 or even dipped to 2.5. This signals sharp liability on Atlanta plus the points. Home divisional dogs are 14-6 ATS (70%) this season. Sharps have also hit this under, driving the total down from 47.5 to 46. This matches a profitable late season divisional under system. This is also a revenge spot for the Falcons. In Week 11, New Orleans beat Atlanta 24-9, covering as 3.5-point favorites. 

4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals

Both of these NFC West foes are jockeying for playoff positioning and looking to rebound from disappointing losses. The Rams (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) just fell to the 49ers 23-20, losing outright as 5-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Patriots 20-17 and failing to cover as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short 1.5-point road favorite. Early action steamed Los Angeles from -1.5 to -3. But now that the line has reached the key number of 3 we've seen a lot of respected buyback on Arizona, dropping this line back down to 2.5 at some shops. The Cardinals have value as a divisional dog with an inflated line. Sharps have also targeted this under, dropping the total from 49 to 48.5. Both of these teams are profitable to the under, with the Rams 8-3 and the Cardinals 7-3-1. Historically, late season divisional unders have been a smart bet.

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