Welcome to Week 11 of the NFL. For the first nine weeks of the season we saw dogs cash at an astounding 57% clip. But dogs have run cold over the past week, going just 5-10 ATS (33%). The public is enjoying their best stretch of the year right now, with chalky favorites on fire. Will it continue today? Or will dogs wake up and get back to their winning ways?
For Sunday NFL analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to gametime.
Until then, let's discuss a trio of NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors today.
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
The Falcons (3-6 SU, 4-5 ATS) got off to a putrid 0-5 start but have since gone 3-1 over their past four games, most recently beating the Broncos 34-27 and covering as 4.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints (7-2, 4-5 ATS) have ripped off six straight wins and just took down the 49ers 27-13, covering as 9.5-point favorites. This line opened with New Orleans listed as a 7-point favorite. But we've seen a massive adjustment with the news that Drew Brees will miss this game due to injury and Taysom Hill will start in his place. The quarterback switch, along with some sharp Falcons money, has dropped this line down to Saints -3.5. The Falcons have value as a road divisional dog with a line move in their favor (14-7 ATS, 67% this season). Atlanta also has a rest advantage as they are coming off a bye and New Orleans is on regular rest. Sharp action has also hit this under, dropping the total from 51.5 to 49.
1 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Bengals at Washington Football Team
The Bengals (2-6-1 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) have been quite profitable to bet on this season, losing at a high rate but managing to cover the vast majority of their games, except for last week when they got crushed by the Steelers 36-10 and failed to cover as 6.5-point dogs. On the flip side, Washington (2-7 SU, 3-5-1 ATS) hasn't won or covered much this season. Last week Washington fell to Detroit 30-27, failing to cover as 2.5-point dogs. This line opened at a pick'em. A slight majority of bets are backing Cincinnati, but respected money has come in on Alex Smith at home over visiting rookie Joe Burrow, pushing this line up to Washington -1.5. Washington has value as a buy-low "bad" ATS team against a sell-high "good" ATS team. If you're wary of laying the points in what could be a close game, Washington is roughly -125 on the moneyline here. Sharps have hit this over, pushing the total up slightly from 46 to 46.5. The Bengals are 6-3 to the over. Washington is 4-4-1.
4:25 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Indianapolis Colts
The Packers (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) have won two straight and just took down the pesky Jaguars 24-20, although Green Bay failed to cover as big 13.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Colts (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) have won three of their last four games, including an impressive 34-17 win over the Titans as 1-point favorites last Thursday Night. This line originally opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public says give me the Packers, yet we've seen a massive adjustment toward Indianapolis, with sharp money flipping the Colts from a dog to 1.5-point favorite. Indianapolis even reached -2.5 at one point before. The Colts have value as a contrarian favorite in a "fade the trendy dog" situation. Indianapolis also has a rest advantage as they last played on Thursday while the Packers are on regular rest. We've also seen pro money hit this over, pushing the total up from 49 to 51.5.
More Sunday Line Moves
Eagles + 3 to + 2.5 at Browns
Patriots + 2.5 to -2 at Texans
Titans + 7 to + 6 at Ravens
Dolphins -2.5 to -3.5 at Broncos
Cowboys + 9.5 to + 7 at Vikings