Welcome to Week 16 of the NFL season. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m. ET to 12-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by Mike Palm, Amal Shah, Thomas Gable and William Hill. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to kickoff.
Until then, let's discuss a trio of NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors today...
1 p.m. ET: Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers
These AFC powerhouses are gearing up for a playoff push but also trending in opposite directions. The Colts (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS) have won three-straight and just took down the Texans 27-20, although they failed to cover as 7.5-point home favorites. Indianapolis currently owns the 6-seed in the AFC playoffs but could move up to the 4-seed if they catch the Titans. Indy could also fall out of the playoff structure entirely if they lose out and the Dolphins and Ravens win out. Meanwhile, the Steelers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) were once undefeated but have since fallen on hard times and lost three straight, most recently falling to the Bengals 27-20 on Monday night as hefty 14.5-point road favorites. Pittsburgh is currently the 3-seed in the playoffs but could slip a few spots if they continue to lose games. The early lookahead line on this game was Steelers -3 at home. The public is all over the Colts, especially after Pittsburgh just lost straight up to the lowly Bengals. Early in the week we saw a heavy dose of Colts money show up, flipping this line to Indy -1.5. But over the past 24-hours, late sharp action has hammered Pittsburgh, pushing the Steelers back to -1.5 or even -2 at some shops. Essentially, the Steelers have buy-low value as a "fade the trendy dog" contrarian favorite with a late sharp move in a heavily bet game. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game as the total has been bet down from 45 to 43. The forecast calls for mid 30s with 5-10 MPH winds.
4:25 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
This NFC West heavyweight bout is one of the most consequential games of the Week 16 slate. The Rams (9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS) were in the driver seat for the division lead but suffered a huge letdown last week, losing to the Jets 23-20 as 17-point home favorites. Los Angeles currently occupies the 5-spot in the NFC playoffs but could catch Seattle with a win in this game. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) are getting hot at the right time, winning two straight and four of their last five. Seattle just beat Washington 20-15 last week, although they failed to cover as 6-point road favorites. Seattle has already clinched a playoff spot but needs to keep winning for seeding purposes. This line opened with Seattle listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is all over Russell Wilson and happy to fade the Rams after their putrid loss to the Jets last week. However, despite this lopsided support to Seattle, the Seahawks have fallen from -2.5 to -1. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rams. Los Angeles has value as a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS this season), a divisional dog (59% ATS) and a short road dog + 6 or less (65% ATS). The total is 47.5. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under, with the Rams 10-4 and Seahawks 8-6. These teams met in Week 10 and the Rams won 23-16.
8:20 p.m. ET: Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers
Bettors are in for a treat with this Sunday Night Football matchup between non-conference elites. The Titans (10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS) have won two-straight and four of their last five, including a 46-25 beatdown of the Lions last week, easily covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Tennessee currently sits in the 4-seed in the AFC but needs to keep winning to fend off the Colts. Similarly, the Packers (11-3 SU, 8-6 ATS) have won four-straight and just beat the Panthers 24-16, although they failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. Green Bay currently holds the 1-seed in the NFC but needs to keep winning to hold off the Saints and Seahawks for the first round bye. This line opened with the Packers listed as 4-point home favorites. Sharp money has sided with the Titans, dropping this line down to 3.5 or even 3 at some shops. Pros really liked the Titans getting the hook (+ 3.5). Tennessee has value as a primetime dog (61% ATS this season), a short road dog + 6 or less (65% ATS) and a dog with a line move in their favor (60% ATS). Respected money has hit the under, dropping the total from 56 to 54. The Titans are one of the best over teams this season (10-3-1). Green Bay is 7-7. The forecast calls for cold temperatures (low 20s) and possibly 15-20 MPH winds at Lambeau. Primetime unders are 59% this season.
More Sunday Line Moves
Jets + 10 to + 7 vs Browns
Bengals + 8.5 to + 7 at Texans
Panthers + 2.5 to + 1 at Washington
Falcons + 11.5 to + 11 at Chiefs
Broncos-Chargers Under 50 to 48.5
Eagles + 2 to -3 at Cowboys