Welcome to Week 14 of the NFL season. So far, it's been a great year for betting underdogs. Overall, dogs are 109-84 ATS (56%). Dogs with a line move in their favor (think + 4 to + 3.5) are 52-32 ATS (62%). Totals have been pretty much break even in terms of overs and unders. But since Week 10, we've seen unders catch fire, going 33-22-1 ATS (60%).
For Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m. ET to 12-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by Mike Palm, Amal Shah, Thomas Gable and William Hill. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to gametime.
Until then, let's discuss a trio of NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors today.
1 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins
If the playoffs started today, Kansas City would be the 2-seed in the AFC and Miami would be the 6-seed. The Chiefs (11-1 SU, 6-6 ATS) have won seven straight and just beat the Broncos 22-16 on Sunday night, although they failed to cover as 13-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (8-4 SU, 9-3 ATS) started the season 1-3 but have gone 7-1 since, most recently beating the Bengals 19-7 last week and covering as 10-point home favorites. This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 7.5-point road favorite. The public is all over Patrick Mahomes and company. However, despite this lopsided betting, we've seen Kansas City stay frozen at -7.5 or even fall to -7. This indicates wiseguy money buying low on the Dolphins plus the points, ideally plus the hook (+ 7.5). December home dogs of + 7 or more have covered roughly 56% of the time over the past decade. We've seen the total rise from 48.5 to 50.5. The forecast calls for clear skies and 80+ degrees in Miami, ideal conditions for offense.
4:25 p.m. ET: Washington Football Team at San Francisco 49ers
These NFC non-division opponents are trending in opposite directions. Washington (5-7 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) is getting hot at the right time. The Football Team has won three straight and just shocked the undefeated Steelers 23-17, winning outright as 6-point road dogs. Meanwhile, the 49ers (5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS) are watching their playoff chances slip away and just fell to the Bills 34-24, losing outright as 1.5-point favorites. San Francisco is just 1-4 over their last five games. This line opened with the 49ers listed as 3.5-point "home" favorites (this game will be played in Arizona). Some books had an earlier lookahead of San Francisco -4.5. We've seen a sharp adjustment toward Washington here, with respected pro money grabbing the Football Team plus the points, dropping this line down to the key number of 3. Washington has value as a short road dog + 6 or less (47-26 ATS, 64%) and a dog with a line move in their favor (52-32 ATS, 62%).
8:20 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Bettors are in for a treat with this marquee Sunday Night Showdown. If the playoffs started today, Pittsburgh would be the 1-seed and Buffalo the 3-seed. The Steelers (11-1 SU, 8-4 ATS) just suffered their first loss of the season last week, falling to Washing 23-17 and losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. On the flip side, Buffalo (9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS) has won two straight and five of their last six, including a 34-24 win over the 49ers last week as 1.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. Pro money immediately pounced on Buffalo as a short home dog and moved the line all the way to Bills -2.5. Essentially, wiseguys have flipped Buffalo from a dog to a favorite. We've seen some respected buyback on Steelers + 2.5, dropping the line back down to 2 where it rests now. Pittsburgh has value as a buy low inflated dog off a loss. Primetime dogs are 25-14 ATS (64%) on the season. Short road dogs + 6 or less are 47-26 ATS (64%). We've also seen some over money, driving this total up from 47 to 49.
More Sunday Line Moves
Titans-Jags Under 53 to 52
Bengals + 3.5 to + 3 vs Cowboys
Cardinals-Giants Over 45 to 47
Colts-Raiders Over 50.5 to 52.5
Chargers + 2.5 to pick'em vs Falcons
Saints -6.5 to -7.5 at Eagles
Saints-Eagles Under 45 to 43