Welcome to Week 10 of the NFL season. Dogs have reigned supreme up until this point, going 76-58 ATS (57%). We've also seen short road dogs + 6 or less crush it (35-15 ATS, 70%), along with divisional dogs (29-17 ATS, 63%). Road teams with a line move in their favor (known as the COVID system) are 44-26 ATS (63%). In terms of totals, it's been an over year thus far (overs 71-60-3, 54%).
For Sunday NFL analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to gametime.
Until then, let's discuss a trio of NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors today.
4:05 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
The Broncos (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) have lost two of their last three games, including a 34-27 loss to the Falcons last week in which they failed to cover as 4.5-point road dogs. On the flip side, the Raiders (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) have played well as of late, winning two straight and three of their last four. Las Vegas is coming off a 31-26 victory over the Chargers, covering as 1-point road favorites. This line opened with Vegas listed as a 4-point home favorite. Early betting pushed the line up to Raiders -5. But since that time we've seen a steady flow of wiseguy money back the road dog, dropping the Broncos from + 5 to + 3.5. The Broncos have value as a road divisional dog, a short road dog + 6 or less and a road team with a line move in their favor. Road division dogs with a line move in their favor are 14-5 ATS (74%) this season.
4:05 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Arizona Cardinals
The Bills (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) are riding a three-game winning streak and just came off a huge upset victory over the Seahawks, winning 44-34 as 3-point home dogs. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) just saw their three-game winning streak snapped last week as they fell to the Dolphins 34-31, losing straight up as 6-point home favorites. This line opened with Arizona listed as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is rushing to the window to grab the points with the streaking Bills. However, despite the public backing Buffalo, we've seen this line move toward Arizona (-1.5 to -2.5). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Cardinals, with pros buying low on Arizona and selling high on the trendy dog Bills in a possible letdown spot after a big win. Pros are banking on a shootout and absolutely love this over. The total has been steamed up from 54 to 56.5. The Bills are 7-2 to the over while the Cardinals are 5-2-1 to the under.
8:20 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots
The Ravens (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS) beat the sharps last week, taking down the Colts 24-10 despite heavily respected money hitting Indianapolis (+ 3 to -1). Meanwhile, the Patriots (3-5 SU, 3-5 ATS) snapped a four-game losing streak with a come-from-behind victory over the Jets 30-27 last week, although New England failed to cover as 9-point road favorites. This line opened with the Ravens listed as 6.5-point road favorites. The public sees an easy win and cover by Baltimore and can't lay the points fast enough. This heavily lopsided action pushed the line up from Ravens -6.5 to -7.5. But then we saw some sharp buyback on the Pats getting the hook (+ 7.5), which has dropped this line back down to 7. The + 7 is being juiced up to -115 across the market, signalling further liability on the Pats. New England has heightened contrarian value as they're only getting about one-third of bets on Sunday Night Football. Primetime dogs are 19-9 ATS (68%) this season. We've also seen a flood of respected money hit this over, driving the total up from 41 to 43. Overs are cashing at a 54% clip this season in the NFL.
More Week 10 Line Moves
Washington + 4.5 to + 3 at Lions
Browns -2.5 to -4 vs Texans
Texans-Browns Under 54 to 45.5
Bengals-Packers Under 53 to 47.5
Bucs-Panthers Over 48.5 to 50.5
Chargers + 2.5 to + 1.5 at Dolphins
Bengals + 10 to + 7 at Steelers
Rams -1.5 to -2.5 vs Seahawks
49ers-Saints Under 51 to 49