Sunday NFL Divisional Round Sharp Report


NFL playoff dogs bounced back in a big win on Saturday, going 2-0 straight up and 2-0 ATS in the Divisional Round. This came on the heels of a Wild Card Weekend in which favorites went 5-1 ATS. 

In the early game, the Bengals (4) upset the Titans 19-16. In the nightcap, the 49ers (6) took down the Packers 13-10. Sportsbooks and contrarian bettors feasted in both spots, as the Bengals were receiving only 33% of bets at BetMGM and the 49ers only 21%. Both outright dog wins also killed a plethora of moneyline parlays and teasers for the public. 

Unders went 2-0 on Saturday as well. Unders are now 6-2 in the postseason. 

With the Titans and Packers eliminated, here are the updated Super Bowl odds at BetMGM

Chiefs 375

Bills, Bucs 400

49ers 450

Rams 550

Bengals 700

Now it's onto Sunday, where we have another set of Divisional Round matchups to get down on. For extensive betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

Until then, let's discuss which direction the smart money is leaning for today's playoff doubleheader...

3 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Both of these divisional winners are coming off big Wild Card wins. The 4-seed Rams (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) crushed the Cardinals 34-11, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the 2-seed Bucs (14-4 SU, 10-8 ATS) brushed aside the Eagles 31-15, covering as 7-point home favorites. 

This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. At BetMGM, the bets are split down the middle. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. However, we've seen this line fall from 3 to 2.5, signaling respected money grabbing the Rams plus the points. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-12 ATS (70%) over the past decade. Shawn Hochuli, the lead ref, has historically favored road teams (36-25 ATS, 59%). 

The Bucs have value as a cheap moneyline home favorite (-145). Over the past decade, Divisional Round home favorites are 27-10 (73%) straight up. The Bucs have a rest advantage as well, as Tampa Bay played on Sunday afternoon while the Rams are on a short week after playing Monday night. 

We've also seen some respected money hit this under, dropping the total from 48.5 to 48 despite 66% of bets taking the over. Playoff unders that fall at least a half point are 26-19 (58%) over the last decade. Hochuli has historically favored unders (34-25, 58%). The forecast calls for low 60d with 10-15 MPH winds. When the wind blows 10 MPH or more, the under is 16-8 (67%) in the playoffs the past decade. 

6:30 p.m. ET: Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs

Both of these Super Bowl hopefuls are coming off Wild Card Weekend blowout wins. The 3-seed Bills (12-6 SU, 10-6-2 ATS) just dominated the Patriots 47-17, covering as 4.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the 2-seed Chiefs (13-5 SU, 9-9 ATS) just crushed the Steelers 42-21, covering as 11.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 2.5-point home favorite. The public is happy to lay the points with Mahomes at home at such a short price. However, despite 57% of bets taking the Chiefs, this line has fallen from 2.5 to 1.5. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Buffalo, with pros grabbing the points not laying them. Buffalo could be a prime teaser spot (1.5 to7.5), which goes through multiple key numbers. Josh Allen is 16-9 ATS (64%) in his career as a dog. Playoff dogs with a line move in their favor are 28-12 ATS (70%) over the past decade. Buffalo enjoys a rest advantage, having played last Saturday compared to the Chiefs playing last Sunday.

Pros and Joes both expect a high scoring game, as the total has been steamed up from 53 to 54. Currently 83% of bets and 93% of money is on the over. The forecast at Arrowhead calls for low 30s with mild 5 MPH winds. These teams met back in Week 5 and Buffalo upset the Chiefs 38-20 at Arrowhead. 

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A Numbers Game: Always compare odds with games behind, remaining schedule, and strength of schedule. i.e. Braves at +300 offer value just 1 game behind the Mets.

The Lombardi Line: It may be a good time to buy low on NFL teams that have the talent, but haven't executed in the first three weeks.

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Amal Shah: Oklahoma / TCU OVER 69

Danny Burke: Texans / Chargers UNDER 45

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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