Sunday NFL Betting Recap and Monday Night Football Sharp Report for Chiefs-Ravens

September 28, 2020 12:28 AM

Sunday was a profitable day for NFL chalk bettors as Week 3 favorites went 8-6 ATS and Overs went 9-5. The public cleaned up on both the side and total in the most heavily bet game of the day as the Packers upset the Saints 37-30 on Sunday Night Football. More than two-thirds of bets backed Green Bay (+ 3.5 to + 3) and took the over 52. The Packers cashed + 145 on the moneyline. The public also rolled with the Bucs, who beat the Broncos 28-10 as 6-point favorites. Tampa Bay was the most popular pick of the day, receiving roughly three-out-of-four bets, and easily covered the number. 

Here are the other chalk favorites who covered

  • 49ers (-3) over Giants 36-9
  • Bills (-2) over Rams 35-32
  • Seahawks (-5.5) over Cowboys 38-31
  • Steelers (-4) over Texans 28-21
  • Browns (-7) over Washington 34-20
  • Patriots (-7) over Raiders 36-20
  • Colts (-11.5) over Jets 36-7

However, it wasn't all bad for contrarians and wiseguys. The Bears (+ 2.5, beat Falcons 20-26), Lions (+ 5, beat Cardinals 26-23) and Panthers (+ 6, beat Chargers 21-16) all received roughly a third of tickets but took in sharp reverse line movement. All three won straight up. 

Two other contrarian dogs to cover were the Bengals and Vikings. Cincinnati fell from + 6.5 to + 5.5 and tied the Eagles 23-23. Minnesota fell to Tennessee 31-30 but covered as an incredibly unpopular and inflated home dog (+ 1.5 to + 3).

Overs continue to be a dominant storyline this season. After a 9-5 showing yesterday, Overs are now 29-18 (62%) overall this season. One has to imagine that the lack of (or limited) fans in the stands has something to do with it. Without crowd noise, offenses can better communicate and bark out signals. There are no deafening roars leading to false starts or miscommunications that end drives. 

Today a new week begins with Monday Night Football and Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals. Let's discuss where the smart money is flowing for MNF. 

For an updated breakdown of Monday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted at noon ET. I'll also be joining Michael Lombardi and Patrick Meagher on The Lombardi Line at 12:25 p.m ET to offer a market update for Monday Night Football, NBA, MLB, NHL and more. 

8:15 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs at Baltimore Ravens

Bettors couldn't have asked for a better Monday Night Football matchup. These Super Bowl favorites are both undefeated and look primed for a championship season. The Chiefs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) are coming off a tough 23-20 win over the Chargers, although they failed to cover as 9-point favorites. On the flip side, the Ravens (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) have looked unstoppable through two games, crushing the Browns 38-6 and then dominated the Texans 33-16 last week. This game opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public can't believe they're getting Patrick Mahomes as a dog. However, despite two-thirds of bets grabbing the Chiefs and the points, we've seen this line move further to the Ravens -3 to -3.5. This signals pro money backing Baltimore at home and causing sharp reverse line movement in their favor. Essentially, Balimore is in a super sharp spot as a contrarian favorite in a heavily bet game. Pros are fading the trendy dog. We could be looking at a high scoring game as the total opened at 52 and has been bet up to 54. Surprisingly, the over is 1-1 in Chiefs games and 0-2 in Ravens games thus far. 

>>>Get odds comparisons by state and sportsbook

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