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Sunday NBA Sharp Report (6-6)

June 6, 2021 01:41 AM

Today the weekend wraps up with 16 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 2 NHL Stanley Cup playoff games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for today's two NBA playoff games...

1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers

This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. Both of these teams are coming off 4-1 series wins in round one, with the Hawks beating the Knicks and the 76ers taking down the Wizards. In this afternoon's series opener, the 76ers opened as 2.5-point home favorites. We saw some early money lay the points with Philadelphia, which drove this line up from -2.5 to -3. Then some Hawks + 3 buyback hit the market, dropping the line back down from 3 to 2.5. The 76ers have value as a short favorite -5 or less (20-8 ATS, 71.4% this season). The elephant in the room here is the status of injured Philadelphia big man Joel Embiid. He is questionable for today's game. Expect this line to jump one way or the other depending on his status. The total hasn't budged off the opener of 220.5. When the total is 220 or more, the over is 20-9 (69%) this postseason. The 76ers are -200 favorites to win the series. The Hawks are + 160 dogs.

3:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers

This is Game 7 of the Western Conference first round. After falling down 2-0 early in the series, the Clippers have bounced back to go 3-1 since, including a 104-97 win in Game 6 to force a deciding Game 7. This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 6-point home favorite. The public sees a coin flip game and can't believe this line is so high. They are rushing to the window to grab the points with the road dog Mavs. However, despite this lopsided support, we've seen some books move from Clippers -6 to -6.5. This signals some sharp "Fade the Trendy Dog" value on the Clippers as a rare contrarian favorite with a reverse line move. Playoff favorites are 31-18 ATS (63.3%) this postseason. The total opened at 212.5. The public is hammering the over on a low total, yet we've seen the line drop to 210. This signals sharp action on the under. Historically, unders have done very well in Game 7s due to the tired legs and emphasis on defense. Game 7 unders are 20-13 (61%) over the past decade. The under is 4-2 this series. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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