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Sunday NBA Sharp Report (6-13)

June 13, 2021 12:58 AM

Today, the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games, 2 NBA playoff games and 1 NHL Stanley Cup playoff game. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for today's two NBA playoff games...

3 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Milwaukee Bucks

The Nets lead the series 2-1. After losing the first two games in Brooklyn, the Bucks earned a much needed win on their home court in Game 3, taking down the Nets 86-83 but failing to cover as 3.5-point home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, the Nets opened as a short 2-point road favorite. The public is absolutely hammering Brooklyn, with more than eight out of ten bets rushing to the window to lay the points with the Nets. However, despite this massively lopsided betting, the line has remained frozen at 2. In fact, several books have even dropped to 1.5 at times. This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Bucks, with wiseguys scooping up Milwaukee + 2 at home. Think of it this way, if everyone is betting the Nets, then why hasn't Brooklyn moved to -2.5 or -3? Because the house has taken in respected Bucks money and refuses to hand out a better number to brave Milwaukee bettors. We've also seen some under money show up. The total opened at 230 and has been bet down to 228. Unders are 7-5 (58%) so far in Round Two. The under is a perfect 3-0 this series, with final combined scores of 222, 211 and 169. Leading 2-1, Brooklyn is a -375 favorite to win the series. Milwaukee is a + 300 underdog.

8 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Denver Nuggets

The Suns lead the series 3-0 and have a chance to eliminate the Nuggets with a win and also punch their tickets to the Conference Finals. Phoenix is coming off a resounding 116-102 victory in Game 3, easily winning outright as 2-point road dogs. In tonight's Game 4, the Suns opened as a short 2.5-point road favorite. Pros and Joes seem to be in agreement and both are laying the points with the streaking Suns. This lopsided betting has driven Phoenix up from -2.5 to -3. Some shops are even juicing up the -3 to -115, signaling a possible rise to -3.5. Phoenix has value as a road favorite (11-3 ATS, 79% this postseason) and a short favorite -5 or less are (24-12 ATS, 67%). Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor (at least a half point or more) are 23-13 ATS (64%) this postseason. Respected money has also hit this over, driving the total up from 221 to 222. When the total is 220 or more, the over is 24-15 (62%) this postseason. Leading 3-0, the Suns are -10000 favorites to advance to the next round. The Nuggets are + 2500 to come back and win the series. 

Updated Series Prices at BetMGM

76ers -600 vs Hawks + 425 (76ers lead 2-1)

Jazz -200 vs Clippers + 155 (Jazz lead 2-1)

Updated NBA Title Odds

Nets + 130

Jazz + 360

Suns + 475

76ers + 800

Clippers + 900

Bucks + 1200

Hawks + 10000

Nuggets + 25000

Updated Finals MVP Odds

Durant + 180

Mitchell + 450

Booker + 700

Embiid + 900

Leonard + 1100

Harden, Paul + 1200

Antetokounmpo, Gobert + 1400

Irving + 1800

George + 3000

Simmons, Ayton, Conley + 4000

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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