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Sunday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Happy Sunday! Today the weekend wraps up with 2 NBA playoff games, 4 NHL playoff games and 17 MLB games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Dave Ross and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for today's NBA playoff games...
3:30 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks
This is Game 4 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Suns lead the series 2-1 but Dallas is coming off a 103-94 win in Game 3, covering as 1-point home favorites. In this afternoon's rematch, the Mavericks opened as a short 1.5-point home favorite. Respected money has poured in on Phoenix, flipping the Suns from a 1.5-point dog to a 2-point favorite. Essentially, Phoenix is receiving sharp "dog to favorite" line movement. Favorites are 37-24 ATS (61%) this postseason. Favorites with a line move in their favor are 22-9 ATS (71%). We've also seen some wiseguy action hit the under, dropping the total from 215 to 214.5. Unders are 40-21 (66%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 22-10 (69%). Leading 2-1, Phoenix is a -500 favorite to win the series. The Mavs are +375 dogs. 
8 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers
This is Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Heat lead the series 2-1 but Philadelphia is coming off a 99-79 win in Game 3, easily covering as 1-point home favorites. In tonight's rematch, the 76ers opened as a 1.5-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know who to back. However, despite the even ticket count, we've seen the 76ers creep up from -1.5 to -2 at some shops. This signals some smart money liability on the 76ers, with pros backing the home team on the short number off a big win. Playoff favorites are 46-15 (75%) straight up this postseason. Philadelphia is -130 on the moneyline. The total has ticked down from 208 to 207.5, signaling pro money expecting another lower scoring game. Leading 2-1, the Heat are -375 favorites to win the series. The 76ers are +280 dogs. 
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