Sunday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Welcome to the second round of the NBA playoffs! Before we discuss the betting market for both of today's games, here are the updated futures prices at BetMGM...


To Win NBA Title

Warriors +300

Suns +320

Celtics +375

Heat +500

Bucks +700

Grizzlies +1300

Mavericks +2000

76ers +2500


To win Eastern Conference

Celtics +140

Heat +160

Bucks +360

76ers +1000


To Win Western Conference

Suns +125

Warriors +150

Grizzlies +600

Mavericks +700


Now let's discuss where smart money is leaning for today's doubleheader...


1 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

This is Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals. The Bucks brushed aside the Bulls 4-1 in the first round while the Celtics are coming off a 4-0 sweep of the Nets. This game opened with Boston listed as a 5-point home favorite. The public is split and doesn't know whether to grab the points or lay them. However, despite the split ticket count we've seen the line fall from 5 to 4.5, signaling some respected money backing Milwaukee as a road dog. We've also seen wiseguys hit the under, dropping the total from 218.5 to 217.5. Unders are 33-16 (67%) this postseason. Unders that fall at least a half point are 19-9 (68%). The under went a perfect 5-0 in the Bucks-Bulls first round series. The Celtics-Nets series went 2-2 to the total. The Celtics are -225 favorites to win this series. The Bucks are +175. Milwaukee is expected to miss star forward Khris Middleton for the entire series. 


3:30 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Memphis Grizzlies 

This is Game 1 of the Western Conference Semifinals. The Warriors took down the Nuggets 4-1 in the first round while the Grizzlies edged the Timberwolves 4-2. This line opened with Golden State listed as a 2.5-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window as fast as they can to lay the short chalk with the Warriors. However, despite this lopsided betting the line has refused to budge off 2.5. Some shops have even briefly touched 2 or even 1.5 at times. Essentially, we are looking at a sharp line freeze on Memphis, with pros grabbing the points with the short contrarian home dog. Sharps have also hit the over, steaming the total up from 218 to 220.5. The over went 4-1 in the Warriors-Nuggets series. The under went 4-2 in the Grizzlies-Timberwolves series. The Warriors are -275 favorites to win the series. The Grizzlies are +210 dogs. 

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A Numbers Game: Always compare odds with games behind, remaining schedule, and strength of schedule. i.e. Braves at +300 offer value just 1 game behind the Mets.

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