9 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks
This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors lead the series 2-0 after winning and covering both games on their home court. Golden State won the opener 112-87, covering as 5.5-point home favorites, and then won again 126-117 in Game 2, covering as 6-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Dallas.
Tonight's rematch opened with Dallas listed as a short 2-point home favorite. The public is happy to grab the Warriors plus the points. However, despite this lopsided betting on Golden State we've seen the line move further to Dallas (-2 to -2.5). This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Dallas, with pros laying the points with the short contrarian favorite. This is also shaping up to be a "Fade the Trendy Dog" play in favor of Dallas.
Favorites are 45-35 ATS (56%) this postseason. The Mavericks have also been profitable off a loss this season, going 26-10 ATS (72%), including 4-2 ATS in the postseason. Favorites are 55-25 (69%) straight up in the playoffs. Dallas is -145 on the moneyline. The Mavericks also match the classic wiseguy system on desperate teams down 0-2 in the series. These teams have typically come out guns blazing in Game 3, covering the first quarter and first half line at a relatively high clip. Dallas is -2 in the first quarter and -2.5 in the first half.
The total opened at 218.5 and reached as high as 219.5 before falling back to opener of 218.5. The over/under is 1-1 this series. Unders have been highly profitable this postseason, posting a 50-30 (63%) record. When the total is 210 or more, the under is 45-21 (68%). The under is 58-37 in Mavs games this season, including 34-12 at home.
Leading 2-0, the Warriors are -800 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are +550 dogs. Golden State is the favorite to win the NBA Title at -120.