Sunday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report

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9 p.m. ET: Golden State Warriors at Dallas Mavericks

This is Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals. The Warriors lead the series 2-0 after winning and covering both games on their home court. Golden State won the opener 112-87, covering as 5.5-point home favorites, and then won again 126-117 in Game 2, covering as 6-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Dallas. 

Tonight's rematch opened with Dallas listed as a short 2-point home favorite. The public is happy to grab the Warriors plus the points. However, despite this lopsided betting on Golden State we've seen the line move further to Dallas (-2 to -2.5). This signals some sharp reverse line movement on Dallas, with pros laying the points with the short contrarian favorite. This is also shaping up to be a "Fade the Trendy Dog" play in favor of Dallas. 

Favorites are 45-35 ATS (56%) this postseason. The Mavericks have also been profitable off a loss this season, going 26-10 ATS (72%), including 4-2 ATS in the postseason. Favorites are 55-25 (69%) straight up in the playoffs. Dallas is -145 on the moneyline. The Mavericks also match the classic wiseguy system on desperate teams down 0-2 in the series. These teams have typically come out guns blazing in Game 3, covering the first quarter and first half line at a relatively high clip. Dallas is -2 in the first quarter and -2.5 in the first half. 

The total opened at 218.5 and reached as high as 219.5 before falling back to opener of 218.5. The over/under is 1-1 this series. Unders have been highly profitable this postseason, posting a 50-30 (63%) record. When the total is 210 or more, the under is 45-21 (68%). The under is 58-37 in Mavs games this season, including 34-12 at home. 

Leading 2-0, the Warriors are -800 favorites to win the series. The Mavericks are +550 dogs. Golden State is the favorite to win the NBA Title at -120. 

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PRO TOOLS

Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings for every game on the board, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

CFB Power Ratings3 sets of numbers from Steve MakinenGO HERE.

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PRO TIPS

VSiN PrimeTime: Always check to see if a moneyline parlay offers better odds than a teaser. View more tips

Live Bet Tonight: In games with favorites laying 3 points or fewer, check out laying the price on the moneyline and avoid losing by a few points. View more tips

PRO PICKS

Matt Youmans: Washington +6 vs Texas. View more picks

Paul Stone: Florida State -7 vs Oklahoma. View more pick

 

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