Sunday NBA Playoffs Sharp Report


Happy Easter Sunday! Today the weekend wraps up with four NBA playoff games, 15 MLB games and 6 NHL games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and also check in with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.  

In the meantime, let's discuss where smart money is leaning for several NBA playoff games today...
1 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat
The Hawks (45-39 SU, 39-45 ATS) won a pair of play-in games to earn the 8-seed, beating the Hornets 132-103 as 5.5-point home favorites and edging the Cavaliers 107-101 as 2.5-point road favorites. Now the Hawks fave division rival and the 1-seed Heat (53-29 SU, 46-35-1 ATS), who finished the regular season with a 6-1 record. This line opened with Miami listed as a 6-point home favorite. Respected money seems to be leaning with the Heat, who have ticked up from -6 to -6.5. Playoff favorites with a line move in their favor are 7-1 ATS this postseason and 59-43 ATS (58%) over the past three postseasons. Miami enjoys a rest advantage, having last played a week ago while Atlanta played a pair of high intensity play-in games. Respected money has also hit this over, steaming the total up from 216 to 219. Miami was one of the best "over" teams in the regular season, going 48-33 to the over. Atlanta is 43-41 to the over. The Heat are -375 favorites to win the series. The Hawks are  300. 
3:30 p.m. ET: Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics
The Nets (45-38 SU, 32-48-3 ATS) enter as the 7-seed after beating the Cavaliers 115-108 in the play-in game, although Brooklyn failed to cover as 9.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Celtics (51-31 SU, 43-47-2 ATS) enter as a well-rested 2-seed who finished 4-1 down the stretch in the regular season. This line opened with Boston listed as a 3-point home favorite. The public is split down the middle and doesn't know whether to take the points or lay them. However, we've seen Boston creep up from -3 to -4, signaling pro money laying the points with the Celtics at home. Favorites are 8-2 ATS (80%) so far this postseason. Respected money has also hit the under, dropping the total from 226.5 to 224. Unders are 7-3 (70%) this postseason. The Celtics have value on the series price. Boston is only getting 37% of bets to win the series at BetMGM, yet they've moved from -125 to -140. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on Boston to advance. 
6:30 p.m. ET: Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks
The Bulls (46-36 SU, 42-39-1 ATS) enter as the 6-seed and stumbled down the stretch, going just 1-4 over their last five games. On the flip side, the Bucks (51-31 SU, 39-43 ATS) are the 3-seed and went 3-1 over their final four games. This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a 9.5-point home favorite. We've seen the Bucks tick up from -9.5 to -10, signaling some liability on the Bucks laying the points. Big playoff favorites of 8-point or more are 170-131 ATS (57%) over the past 15 seasons. We've also seen some sneaky over money show up, increasing the total from 229 to 229.5. Milwaukee got hammered by wiseguys on the series price, receiving only 47% of bets but 92% of money and moving from -700 to -1110. One way to bet Milwaukee and avoid the super-high chalk price: play the Bucks series spread at -2.5 games (-180). This means Milwaukee would need to sweep 4-0 or win 4-1. 
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