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Sunday NBA Finals Game 3 Sharp Report

July 11, 2021 01:14 AM

Today, the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games and Game 3 of the NBA Finals. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Dave Ross and myself LIVE this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and check in with our good friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for tonight's big NBA Finals showdown.

8 p.m. ET: Phoenix Suns at Milwaukee Bucks

This is Game 3 of the NBA Finals. The Suns lead the series 2-0. Phoenix took care of business in the first two games, winning and covering both times as home favorites. The Suns won the opener 118-105 as 5-point favorites and won the second game 118-108 as 4.5-point home favorites. Now the series shifts to Milwaukee. This Game 3 line opened with the Bucks listed as 4-point favorites (some shops opened Bucks -3.5 and immediately moved up to -4). The public can't resist grabbing the points with the high-flying Suns, who have won both games by double digits. It almost feels too good to be true. However, sharps appear to be buying low on the Bucks, as Milwaukee is juiced up -4 at -115. Some books have already moved from -4 to -4.5. Essentially all movement and liability has been on the Milwaukee side. The Bucks have value as a postseason favorite coming off a blowout loss of 10-points or more (roughly 57% ATS over the past decade). Short playoff favorites -5 or less are 34-20 (63%) this postseason. The Bucks match a beloved first-quarter wiseguy system that features desperate teams down 0-2 coming back home (the Bucks are -2 on the spread or -170 on the moneyline for the first quarter). Typically these desperate teams come out blazing on their home court in Game 3. The total opened at 222. The over is 2-0 this series, so once again the public is riding the over. However, despite this lopsided support the total has remained frozen at 222, signaling some under liability. Leading 2-0, the Suns are -500 favorites (83%) to win the NBA Title. The Bucks are + 375 dogs. 

Game 3 Prop Bets to Consider

Paul over 21.5 points (-115) 

*Paul has gone over this number in four straight games. He is averaging 27.5-points in the NBA Finals

Lopez over 5.5 rebounds (-130)

*Lopez has gone over this number in four straight games. He is averaging 7.5-rebounds in the NBA Finals

Crowder over 5.5 rebounds (-150)

*Crowder has gone over this number his last two games, averaging 9.5-rebounds in the NBA Finals

Bridges over 12.5 points (-125)

*Bridges has gone over this number in both games, scoring 14-points in Game 1 and 27-points in Game 2

Holiday over 12.5 assists plus rebounds (-145)

*Holiday has gone over this number in 8 of his last 10 playoffs games

NBA Finals MVP at BetMGM

Paul -135

Bookers + 200

Giannis + 500

Ayton + 2000

Middleton + 2200

Bridges + 4000

Holiday + 8000

Exact Series Outcome

Suns win 4-0 (+ 350)

Suns win 4-1 (+ 190)

Suns win 4-2 (+ 450)

Suns win 4-3 (+ 450)

Bucks win 4-2 (+ 1200)

Bucks win 4-3 (+ 800)

How many games will the series go?

4 games (+ 350)

5 games (+ 200)

6 games (+ 275)

7 games (+ 250)

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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