Sunday MLB Sharp Report

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1:35 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (57-44) at Boston Red Sox (50-52)

The Brewers have won the first two games of this three game Interleague series, taking the opener 4-1 as -175 road favorites and then winning again on Saturday 9-4 as -120 road favorites. Milwaukee is now 7-1 since the All Star Break. Meanwhile, the free falling Red Sox are 2-7 since the Break and just 8-21 over their last 29 games. In this afternoon's series finale, Milwaukee taps lefty Aaron Ashby (2-8, 4.38 ERA) and Boston turns to righty Josh Winckowski (3-5, 5.18 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -120 road favorite and the Red Sox a +110 home dog. Sharps are banking on the Brewers to complete the sweep against the ice-cold Red Sox, steaming Milwaukee up from -120 to -140. Non-division road favorites are 176-107 (62%) this season. The Brewers are 47-32 as a favorite and 31-24 on the road. Boston is 20-30 as a dog and 25-27 at home. Winckowski has a 6.75 ERA in four July starts. 

 

1:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians (51-49) at Tampa Bay Rays (54-47)

These AL postseason hopefuls have split the first two games of the series. The Guardians won the opener 4-1 as +105 road dogs. Then the Rays bounced back with a 6-4 win on Saturday, cashing as -145 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, Cleveland hands the ball to righty Bryan Shaw (4-2, 5.45 ERA) and the Rays counter with lefty ace Shane McClanahan (10-3, 1.76 ERA). This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -185 home favorite and Cleveland a +170 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk and have steamed the Rays up from -185 to -210. Home favorites -200 or more are 156-66 (70%) this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 387-221 (64%). The Rays also have correlative betting value as a big favorite in a low total game. Tampa Bay is 32-19 at home. Cleveland is 26-30 on the road. McClanahan is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young at +160.

 

1:40 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (51-50) at Cincinnati Reds (39-61) 

These Interleague foes have split the first two games of the series. The Orioles won the opener 6-2 as -125 road favorites and then the Reds bounced back with an 8-2 win yesterday, cashing as -115 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, Baltimore starts righty Austin Voth (1-1, 3.38 ERA) and Cincinnati sends out lefty Nick Lodolo (3-3, 4.73 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as a short -110 home favorite and the Orioles a +100 road dog. The public is happy to grab the even money with the Orioles. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move further toward the Reds (-110 to -120). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Cincinnati, with pros fading the trendy dog and backing the "fishy" contrarian favorite. We've also seen some respected money hit the under, dropping the total from 9.5 to 9. When the total is 8.5 or higher, the under is 421-364 (54%) this season. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from center. 

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