Sunday MLB Sharp Report

alcantara

1:35 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (44-50) at Pittsburgh Pirates (40-55)

These NL non-division opponents have split the first two games of the series. The Marlins won the opener 8-1, cashing as -125 road favorites. Then the Pirates bounced back with a 1-0 win on Saturday, cashing as +100 home dogs. In this early afternoon rubber match, Miami hands the ball to ace righty Sandy Alcantara (9-4, 1.76 ERA) and Pittsburgh counters with fellow righty Mitch Keller (3-7, 4.55 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed as a -155 road favorite and the Pirates a +140 home dog. Sharps are backing the Marlins with their ace on the mound, steaming Miami up from -155 to -175. Non-division road favorites are 165-100 (62%) this season. Teams on Sunday coming off a loss against an opponent who missed the playoffs are 92-49 (65%). Miami also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5). The Marlins hold the edge at the plate (.237 vs .221) and on the mound (3.77 ERA vs 4.65 ERA). Alcantara is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young at -130.

 

1:35 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (52-43) at Boston Red Sox (48-47)

The Jays have taken the first two games of this AL East grudge match, crushing Boston 28-5 as -125 road favorites in the opener and then winning again on Saturday 4-1 as -180 road favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, Toronto sends out righty Ross Stripling (5-3, 3.03 ERA) and Boston gives the ball to rookie righty Brayan Bello (0-1, 10.13 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -125 road favorite and Boston a +115 home dog. Pros are riding the hot hand, steaming the Jays up from -125 to -145. Toronto is 44-31 as a favorite and 43-31 against righties. Boston is 19-27 as a dog and 32-40 against righties. The Jays lead the season series 9-3. The Red Sox are 12-28 (30%) against the AL East. Stripling has a 2.70 ERA in three July starts. Bello is making his third career start. His first two starts came against the Rays, losing 7-1 and 10-5 and coughing up a combined nine runs in eight innings. 

 

1:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (51-45) at Cincinnati Reds (35-58)

These NL Central rivals have split the first two games of the series. The Reds took Friday night's series opener 9-5, cashing as +125 home dogs. Then the Cardinals bounced back with a 6-3 win on Saturday, taking care of business as -165 road favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, St. Louis starts righty Miles Mikolas (7-7, 2.54 ERA) and Cincinnati taps fellow righty Tyler Mahle (3-7, 4.48 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -120 road favorite and Cincinnati a +110 home dog. Pros have pounced on the Cardinals laying a short chalk price, steaming the St. Louis up from -120 to -145. Road favorites are 314-200 (61%) this season. Teams who made the playoffs the previous season against teams who did not are 363-196 (65%). The Cardinals are 31-15 as a favorite and 40-36 against righties. Meanwhile, Cincinnati is 28-45 as a dog and 26-40 against righties. The Reds are just 2-6 in Mahle's last eight starts. Mikolas has a 2.45 ERA in four July starts. 

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