Sunday MLB Sharp Report

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2:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (34-25) at Minnesota Twins (35-26)

The Twins have won the first two games of this series, winning the opener 9-4 as -120 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-5 as +130 home dogs. In this afternoon's series finale, Tampa Bay starts lefty Jeffrey Springs (2-2, 1.62 ERA) and Minnesota taps righty Cole Sands (0-2, 8.49 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as a slight -115 road favorite and the Twins a +105 home dog. Pros expect Tampa to avoid a sweep, steaming the Rays up from -115 to -125. Non-division road favorites are 114-59 (66%) this season. The total opened at 9 and has fallen to 8.5, signaling wiseguy action on the under. When the total is 8.5 or higher, the under is 228-191 (54%). The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10 MPH winds blowing in from center. 

 

2:15 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (20-39) at St. Louis Cardinals (34-26)

The Cardinals have taken the first two games of this NL Central series, winning the opener 2-0 as -155 home favorites and then winning again on Saturday 5-4 as -180 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, the Reds start righty Graham Ashcraft (3-0, 1.14 ERA) and the Cardinals turn to fellow righty Dakota Hudson (4-2, 2.76 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -170 home favorite and Cincinnati a +155 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the expensive chalk price and have steamed the Cardinals up from -170 to -180. Favorites who made the playoffs last season against teams who did not are 241-133 (64%). The Cardinals are 4-1 against the Reds this season. St. Louis is batting .250 while Cincinnati is hitting just .235. 

 

4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (37-22) at San Francisco Giants (32-26)

The Giants have taken the first two games of this NL West division series, winning the opener 7-2 as +145 home dogs and winning again on Saturday 3-2 as +180 home dogs. In this late afternoon series finale, the Dodgers hand the ball to lefty Julio Urias (3-5, 2.78 ERA) and the Giants counter with fellow southpaw Carlos Rodon (4-4, 3.51 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a short -120 road favorite and San Francisco a +110 home dog. Respected money has come down on the Dodgers to avoid the sweep, steaming Los Angeles up from -120 to -130. Road favorites are 200-122 (62%) this season. Favorites off a loss who made the playoffs last season are 116-62 (65%). The total is 8 with the over juiced to -115, signaling some over liability. The forecast calls for high 50s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to center. 

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A Numbers Game: Pay attention to stats and trends that are completely lopsided. For example, Matt Rhule and the Panthers are 1-25 straight up when allowing their opponent to score 17 or more points.

Follow The Money: Be aware of Miami's backloaded schedule when betting either side of their 11.5 win total. In December: at SF, at LAC, at BUF, vs GB.

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Adam Burke: Washington -2.5 vs UCLA

Pauly Howard: Golden Knights Under 97 points for the season.

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Betting Splits: Percentage of handle & tickets from DraftKings, updated every 10 minutes. GO HERE.

NFL Power Ratings: 3 sets of numbers from Steve Makinen. GO HERE.

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