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Sunday MLB Sharp Report (8-8)

August 8, 2021 12:47 AM

Today the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be joined by VSiN's Will Hill. We'll also check in with Thomas Gable, who runs the Race and Sportsbook at the Borgata in Atlantic City. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Sunday MLB matchups today...

1:05 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (58-54) at New York Yankees (61-49)

The Yankees have taken the first three games of this four-game set, winning close ones each time (5-3, 3-2, 5-4). New York has won five straight games and eight of their last nine. The Yankees trail the first-place Rays by 5.5-games in the AL East. New York is + 650 to win the division. In this afternoon's series finale, Seattle starts lefty Yusei Kikuchi (7-6, 3.89 ERA) and New York gives the ball to righty Luis Gil (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as -154 home favorites and the Mariners a + 140 road dog. The public is all over the red-hot Yankees to complete the sweep at home. However, despite this lopsided betting we've seen the line move toward Seattle (+ 140 to + 130). This signals some sharp reverse line movement on the Mariners, who also have value as a road dog with a high total. The higher amount of expected runs scored, the more variance and upset opportunities, which favors dogs. Pros also seem to be leaning under, as the total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115. The under is 3-0 this series. The forecast calls for high 70s with 5-10 MPH winds blowing in from right field. 

2:10 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (70-41) at Milwaukee Brewers (66-45)

These World Series contenders (Giants + 900, Brewers + 1100) have split the first two games of the series. The Brewers won the opener 2-1 as -140 home favorites and the Giants bounced back with a 9-6 win as + 165 road dogs on Saturday. In this afternoon's rubber match, San Francisco hands the ball to righty Johnny Cueto (7-6, 3.83 ERA) and Milwaukee counters with lefty Brett Anderson (4-5, 3.67 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a -118 home favorite as the Giants a + 108 road dog. The public sees two elite teams and doesn't know who to back. But pros have sided with the Giants, driving San Francisco from + 108 to -103. Essentially the game is now a pick'em. The Giants are 19-15 against lefties and 25-19 as dogs. San Francisco will lean on their bats in this one. The Giants are hitting .244, which ranks 12th overall. The Brewers are hitting .227, which ranks 28th. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -120, signaling a possible fall to 8.5. 

2:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (50-61) at Atlanta Braves (56-55)

The Braves won the series opener 8-4 as hefty -190 home favorites. Then Atlanta blew a 2-0 lead in the 9th inning on Saturday, losing to the Nats 3-2 in heartbreaking fashion. Washington came from behind to cash as + 220 road dogs. Despite the loss, Atlanta is just 2-games behind the division leading Phillies. The Braves are + 200 dogs to win the NL East. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Nats start lefty Patrick Corbin (6-10, 5.74 ERA) and the Braves send out fellow southpaw Max Fried (8-7, 4.05 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -200 home favorite and Washington a + 180 road dog. Wiseguys aren't scared off by the big chalk. They've steamed the Braves up from -200 to -220. Home favorites -200 or more are 110-48 (69.6%) this season. The Braves are 15-12 against lefties. The Nats are 13-20 against lefties. Atlanta is 28-28 at home. Washington is 21-31 on the road. Atlanta is 8-4 against Washington this season. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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