Sunday MLB Sharp Report (8-15)

August 15, 2021 01:24 AM

NFL Preseason unders continued their dominance on Saturday, going an impressive 9-1 overall. Unders are now 14-2 this preseason. Since 2014, preseason unders are now 231-165 (58.3%). 

Today the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games and one more NFL Preseason game. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be joined by VSiN's Will Hill. We'll also check in with our friend Thomas Gable, who runs the Race and Sportsbook at the Borgata in Atlantic City. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Sunday MLB matchups today.

1:05 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (63-55) at Philadelphia Phillies (61-56)

These playoff hopefuls have split the first two games of the series. The Reds won the opener 6-1 as + 150 road dogs and then the Phillies bounced back with a 6-1 victory on Saturday as -160 home favorites. In this early afternoon rubber match, Cincinnati hands the ball to righty Sonny Gray (4-6, 4.40 ERA) and Philadelphia counters with fellow righty Aaron Nola (7-6, 4.35 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -135 home favorite and the Reds a + 125 road dog. The public sees two evenly matched clubs with their respective aces on the mound and doesn't know who to back. But pros are leaning on the Phillies, as we've seen Philadelphia get steamed up from -135 to -145. Non-division home favorites are 373-235 (61.3%) this season. Home favorites off a win are 397-260 (60.4%). Philadelphia is 24-16 (60%) as a home favorite. We could also be looking at a lower scoring game in this one. The total opened at 9 and wiseguy under money has dropped the line to 8.5. The under is 2-0 this series. The forecast calls for low 80s with 5 MPH winds blowing in from right center. 

2:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (64-52) at Chicago White Sox (68-49)

After the White Sox walked off with a 9-8 win over the Yankees in the Field of Dreams game, New York bounced back with a 7-5 win in extra innings yesterday, cashing as + 125 road favorites. In today's rubber match, the Yankees start lefty Nestor Cortes (0-1, 2.70 ERA) and Chicago rebuttals with righty Lucas Giolito (9-8, 3.81 ERA). This line opened with the White Sox listed as a -160 home favorite and the Yankees a + 150 road dog. The public is split down the middle, yet we've seen the White Sox creep up from -160 to -170. This signals sharp action in favor of Chicago at home. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 238-141 (62.8%) this season. Sweet spot non-division home favorites -150 to -175 are 84-44 (65.6%). The White Sox are 36-18 (66.7%) as home favorites. Chicago is 21-11 against lefties. The White Sox are + 128 in run differential. The Yankees are + 17. Chicago will lean on their bats in this one. The White Sox are hitting .249, which ranks 7th-best in MLB. The Yankees are hitting .237, which ranks 21st. The total is 9 with the under juiced to -115, signaling some under liability. The wind is blowing in from center at US Cellular Field at 8-10 MPH. 

4:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays (62-54) at Seattle Mariners (63-55)

The Mariners have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 3-2 as + !45 home dogs and then winning again on Saturday night 9-3 as + 130 home dogs. In today's series finale, the Jays trot out lefty Steven Matz (9-7, 4.28 ERA) and the Mariners counter with righty Logan Gilbert (5-3, 4.05 ERA). This line opened with Toronto listed as a -125 road favorite and Seattle a + 115 home dog. The public says the Jays are a good team and there's no way they lose again today and get swept. However, pros aren't falling victim to the Gambler's Fallacy. Wiseguys are riding the streaking Mariners once again at plus money, causing Seattle to fall from + 115 to + 108. Seattle has value as a contrarian dog with reverse line movement and a dog with a high total (9). High totals benefit dogs as the more expected runs scored, the more variance and upset opportunities. Seattle is 4-1 against Toronto this season. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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