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Sunday MLB Sharp Report (8-1)

August 1, 2021 02:59 AM

Today, the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll be joined by VSiN's Will Hill. I will also be co-hosting The Pregame Show and Betting Across America on VSiN right after the Lombardi Line. 

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Sunday MLB matchups today.

1:10 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (55-50) at New York Mets (55-48)

These playoff hopefuls have split the first two games of the series. The Reds won the opener 6-2 as + 125 road dogs and the Mets bounced back with a 5-4 victory on Saturday as -125 home favorites. In this afternoon's rubber match, Cincinnati hands the ball to righty Vladimir Gutierrez (5-3, 4.75 ERA) and New York counters with righty Marcus Stroman (7-9, 2.63 ERA). This line opened with the Mets listed as a -155 home favorite and the Reds a + 145 road dog. Pros aren't scared off by the chalk. They're hitting the Mets at home, steaming New York up from -155 to -170. Non-division favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 206-128 (61.7%) this season. Teams off a win receiving 15-cents of steam or more are 169-118 (58.9%). The Mets are 37-25 as a favorite. The Reds are 22-26 as a dog. New York is 26-14 (65%).as a home favorite. 

1:20 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (62-43) at Atlanta Braves (52-53)

The Brewers took this series opener 9-5 as -150 road favorites. Then the Braves bounced back with a 8-1 win on Saturday, cashing as + 125 home dogs. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Brewers send out lefty Brett Anderson (3-5, 3.86 ERA) and the Braves rebuttal with Charlie Morton (10-3, 3.72 ERA). This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -135 home favorite and Milwaukee a + 125 dog. The public says give me the better team getting plus money. However, despite a majority of bets backing the Brewers, we've seen this line move further to the Braves (-135 to -145). This signals sharp money fading the trendy dog and backing the contrarian favorite Braves. Non-division home favorites off a win have gone 195-121 (61.7%) this season. The total is 9. Weather could be a factor here. The forecast calls for low 90s with 10 MPH winds blowing out to left center. 

7:08 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (63-43) at Tampa Bay Rays (63-42)

This is your Sunday Night Baseball showdown. The Rays are 2-0 so far in this series, winning the opener 7-3 as -135 home favorites and winning again yesterday 9-5 as -110 home favorites. In tonight's series finale, Boston taps righty Nick Pivetta (8-4, 4.51 ERA) and Tampa Bay starts lefty Shane McClanahan (4-4, 3.93 ERA). This line opened with the Rays listed as -125 home favorites and the Red Sox a + 115 road dog. The public says the Red Sox are a good team and there's no way they get swept. But pros aren't falling victim to Gambler's Fallacy. They're backing Tampa Bay to win again, as we've seen the Rays get steamed from -125 to -135. Home favorites off a win are 351-233 (60.1%) this season. Short home favorites -140 or less are 255-189 (57.4%). Tampa Bay is 26-12 as a home favorite. Historically, we've seen Sunday Night Baseball favorites and home teams do well, cashing roughly 57% of the time the past decade. Pros are also leaning on a lower-scoring game. The total opened at 9 and has fallen to 8.5. Domes and closed roof stadiums like the Trop provide an edge to the under due to the perfect pitching conditions and the ball doesn't travel. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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