Sunday MLB Sharp Report (7-25)

July 25, 2021 04:36 AM

Today the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Jonathan Von Tobel and myself this morning LIVE from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill and check in with our good friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss where the money is flowing for several Sunday MLB matchups today...

1:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (51-46) at Boston Red Sox (60-39)

The Red Sox took the first two games of this divisional series. winning 5-4 as -150 home favorites and then 6-2 as -115 home favorites. Then New York rallied late for a 4-3 victory on Saturday, overcoming a 3-0 deficit in the 8th inning to cash as + 160 road dogs. In this afternoon's series finale, the Yankees hand the ball to righty Domingo German (4-5, 4.71 ERA) and the Red Sox counter with lefty Martin Perez (7-6, 4.16 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -125 home favorite and New York a + 115 road dog. Pros and Joes are both backing the Red Sox to avenge yesterday's late inning collapse, steaming Boston up from -125 to -135. Short home favorites -140 or less are 246-177 (58.2%) this season, producing roughly + 27 units won. Home favorites in general are 577-377 (60.5%), winning + 12 units. The Red Sox are 39-25 against righties this season. The Yankees are just 16-17 against lefties. Boston is hitting .258, which ranks 5th overall. New York is hitting .235, which ranks 19th. Boston is 9-3 against New York this season. 

4:05 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates (38-60) at San Francisco Giants (61-37)

The Pirates have shocked the Giants so far in this series, winning both games as massive underdogs. Pittsburgh won the opener 6-4 as + 170 road dogs and won again on Saturday 10-2 as massive + 235 road dogs. In this late afternoon series finale, the Pirates give the ball to righty JT Brubaker (4-9, 4.68 ERA) and the Giants tap lefty Alex Wood (8-3, 3.77 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -164 home favorite and Pittsburgh a + 154 road dog. Respected money is leaning on the Giants to avoid the sweep and finally post a victory as we've seen San Francisco rise from -164 to -170. "Sweet Spot" non-division home favorites -150 to -175 are 74-36 (67.3%) this season, good for roughly + 11 units won. The Giants are 25-9 as home favorites (73.5%). Pittsburgh is just 7-17 against lefties this season. The Giants are 44-23 against righties. The Giants are 30-15 at home. The Pirates are 17-34 on the road. 

7:08 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox (58-40) at Milwaukee Brewers (58-41)

This is your Sunday Night Baseball showdown. The Brewers have dominated the White Sox so far in this Interleague series, going 2-0 and outscoring Chicago by a combined margin of 13-2 along the way. Tonight's series finale features another stellar pitching matchup, with Chicago starting Lance Lynn (9-3, 1.94 ERA) and Milwaukee countering with fellow veteran righty Brandon Woodruff (7-4, 2.04 ERA). This line opened with the Brewers listed as a modest -125 home favorite and the White Sox a + 115 road dog. Once again, the betting public sees two good teams and two great pitchers and doesn't know who to back. However, despite this even ticket count we've seen the line move to Milwaukee (-125 to -135). This signals wiseguys riding the hot hand and backing the Brewers to complete the sweep. Non-division home favorites are 325-201 (61.8%) this season, producing roughly + 19 units won. Short home favorites -140 or less off a win are 121-85 (58.7%), good for roughly + 17 units won. Milwaukee is 41-30 as a favorite. Chicago is just 5-16 as a dog. 

Remember to check the VSiN Betting Splits every day for money and ticket counts so you can tell who the public is betting on.

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