Sunday MLB Sharp Report (5-9)

May 9, 2021 01:44 AM

The weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games, 8 NBA games and 2 NHL games. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates, be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m.-noon ET on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill along with Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action.

1:05 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals (13-16) at New York Yankees (17-16)

These two Interleague foes have split the first two games of this series. The Nats won the opener 11-4 as + 160 road dogs and the Yankees bounced back with a 4-3 win on Saturday, cashing as slight -110 home favorites. In today's rubber game, the Nats send out righty Joe Ross (2-2, 4.39 ERA) and the Yankees counter with Domingo German (2-2, 4.32 ERA). The Yankees opened as hefty -150 home favorites and the Nats a + 130 road dog. Respected money has come down on the Yankees, driving this line up from New York -150 to -160. Teams receiving 15+  cents of line movement in their favor and coming off a win are 45-33 (57.7%). Teams receiving line movement in Interleague Play are 29-19 (60.4%). We've also seen some liability on a lower-scoring game, as the total is 9.5 with the under juiced to -115. Both of these teams have been profitable to the under this season, with the Nats 18-10-1 to the under and the Yankees 20-13 to the under.

1:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (18-16) at Miami Marlins (15-17)

These non-division opponents have split the first two games of the series, with the Marlins winning the opener 6-1 as -130 home favorites and the Brewers winning 6-2 on Saturday as -115 road favorites. In today's rubber game, the Brewers give the ball to lefty Brett Anderson (2-2, 4.15 ERA) and the Marlins send out ace Sandy Alcantara (1-2, 2.95 ERA). This line opened with the Marlins listed -125 home favorites and the Brewers a + 115 road dog. Sharps are backing the Fish at home to take the series as we've seen Miami move from -125 to -135. The Marlins also have value as a favorite with a low total (7). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as they fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. Miami will lean on their bats in this one. The Marlins are hitting .234, which ranks 15th in MLB. The Brewers are hitting .215, which ranks 27th. The Marlins are + 21 in run differential this season. The Brewers are -7.

1:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins (12-20) at Detroit Tigers (10-24)

These AL Central rivals have split the first two games of this series, with the Twins winning the opener 7-3 as -140 road favorites and the Tigers taking yesterday's showdown 7-3, cashing as + 165 home dogs. In this afternoon's rubber match, the Twins start ace Kenda Maeda (2-2, 5.02 EA) and the Tigers give the ball to lefty Matt Boyd (2-3, 2.27 ERA). This line opened with the Twins listed as -140 road favorites and the Tigers a + 130 road dog. Wiseguys have sided with the Twins as we've seen Minnesota creep up from -140 to -160. Minnesota has value as a team off a win receiving 10-cents of line movement or more in their favor. The Twins have a big advantage as the plate. Minnesota is batting .239, which ranks 10th-best in MLB. The Tigers are batting .207, which ranks 28th. The Twins are -2 in run differential this season. The Tigers are -68, worst in MLB.

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