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Sunday MLB Sharp Report (5-2)

May 2, 2021 03:14 AM

Today, the weekend wraps up with 15 MLB games, 8 NBA games and 1 NHL game. For extensive Sunday betting analysis and line move updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself this morning from 10 a.m. ET to noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll also be joined by VSiN's Will Hill along with our good friend Thomas Gable at the Borgata in Atlantic City.

In the meantime, let's discuss a trio of MLB games today receiving notable sharp action...

1:05 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (11-14) at Washington Nationals (10-12)

The Nationals have taken the first two games of this NL East division series, winning the opener 2-1 as + 115 dogs and winning 7-2 on Saturday as -150 home favorites. The Nats have now won three straight while the Marlins have lost three of four. In this afternoon's series finale, the Marlins send out lefty Trevor Rogers (3-1, 1.29 ERA) and the Nats counter with veteran ace Max Scherzer (1-2, 3.00 ERA). This line opened with Washington listed as a modest -138 home favorite and the Marlins a + 128 road dog. Pros and Joes seem to both be backing the streaking Nats as we've seen Washington rise from -138 to -145. The Nats have value as a favorite with a low total (7). Historically, low totals have benefited favorites as the fewer amount of expected runs scored are more likely to come from the "better" team. The Nats will lean on their bats in this one. Washington is hitting .248, good for 6th-best in MLB. The Marlins are hitting .230, which ranks 17th in the league. The Nats are 6-4 as a favorite and 7-5 at home. The Fish are 8-9 as a dog 7-8 on the road.

1:05 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (15-12) at Pittsburgh Pirates (12-14)

The Cardinals are going for the series sweep today, having won the series opener 7-3 as + 107 dogs and won Saturday 12-5 as -150 road favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, St. Louis trots out righty Carlos Martinez (1-4, 4.76 ERA) and the Pirates start righty Wil Crowe (0-0, 3.86 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -135 road favorite and the Pirates a + 125 home dog. Respected money says "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and is riding the Cardinals once again. We've seen St. Louis rise from -135 to -145. The Cardinals are + 16 in run differential. The Pirates are -23, worst in the National League. The Cardinals are 8-6 on the road. The Pirates are 5-6 at home. We've also seen some over money hit this total, driving it up from 8 to 8.5. The forecast calls for mid 70s with 10-15 MPH winds blowing out to left center.

1:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (12-15) at Cincinnati Reds (12-14)

These two NL Central rivals have split the first two games of the series. The Reds won the opener 8-6 as -120 home favorites and the Cubs bounced back with a 3-2 victory on Saturday as + 140 road dogs. In today's rubber match, the Cubs hand the ball to righty Trevor Williams (2-2, 4.44 ERA) and the Reds send out righty Tyler Mahle (1-1, 1.75 ERA). This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -150 home favorite and Chicago a + 140 road dog. The public is all over the Reds at home with a "better" pitching on the mound. However, despite this lopsided support we've seen Cincinnati drop from -150 to -140. This sharp reverse line movement signals pro money buying low on the Cubs at a nice plus-money price (+ 140 to + 130. The Cubs have value as a dog off a win, a divisional dog and a dog with a line move in their favor. We've also seen road dogs crush it this season, producing a 12% ROI with roughly + 30 units won. We've also seen some under money show up. This total opened at 9 and we've seen several shops fall to 8.5. When the total is 8.5 or higher the under is 58% this season.

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